Valenciennes 1-0 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valenciennes at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valenciennes vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 12 as Valenciennes welcome Guingamp to Stade du Hainaut. Kick-off is set for Saturday 15 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Valenciennes have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Valenciennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Valenciennes have posted 4W 4D 2L at Stade du Hainaut — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Valenciennes 1.80 PPG, Guingamp 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Valenciennes, 0 for Guingamp and 2 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Jan 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Valenciennes in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valenciennes 49% versus Guingamp 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valenciennes 37% | Guingamp 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valenciennes 1.50 xG and Guingamp 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valenciennes attack 1.099 / defence 0.947 | Guingamp attack 1.301 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.210 / away 1.147. Guingamp have an above-average attack strength of 1.301 — the away xG of 1.41 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 Valenciennes games / 49 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valenciennes 40% | Draw 25% | Guingamp 36%. Fair-value odds: Valenciennes 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | Guingamp 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Valenciennes are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valenciennes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Valenciennes 40% | Guingamp 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valenciennes vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade du Hainaut • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valenciennes 40% | Draw 25% | Guingamp 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Valenciennes 1.50 / Guingamp 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Valenciennes attack 1.099 / def 0.947 | Guingamp attack 1.301 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.210 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Valenciennes (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Valenciennes xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Guingamp xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valenciennes vs Guingamp kick off?
Valenciennes vs Guingamp kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at Stade du Hainaut.
What was the final score in Valenciennes vs Guingamp?
Valenciennes 1 - 0 Guingamp.
Where is Valenciennes vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Hainaut.
What competition is Valenciennes vs Guingamp part of?
Valenciennes vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Valenciennes vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Valenciennes a 40% chance of winning, Guingamp a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Valenciennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valenciennes vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Valenciennes and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Valenciennes vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valenciennes and Guingamp?
Record (2 meetings): Valenciennes 0W | Draws 2 | Guingamp 0W.
What form are Valenciennes and Guingamp in?
Valenciennes (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Guingamp (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Valenciennes's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Guingamp's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Valenciennes's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Valenciennes Win
40%
2.53
25%
4.05
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Valenciennes xG
Total xG
2.91
1.41
Guingamp xG
2.53
40%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
10%
10.40
8%
12.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.5 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valenciennes vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Valenciennes and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Valenciennes and 1.41 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Valenciennes vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, Valenciennes have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 15W 18D 16L record — W-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Valenciennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guingamp's form line: 20W 16D 13L from 49 games, 1.55 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-L. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Valenciennes on 1.29 PPG, Guingamp on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Valenciennes have posted 1.29 PPG from 24 outings (8W 7D 9L).
On the road, Guingamp have gone 9W 8D 7L from 24 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Valenciennes are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.41 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valenciennes
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valenciennes and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Valenciennes have gone 15W 18D 16L in their last 49 games (1.29 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 20W 16D 13L in their last 49 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valenciennes at home or Guingamp away?
Guingamp's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valenciennes at home: 1.29 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Valenciennes or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valenciennes have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Guingamp in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Valenciennes and Guingamp runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Mar 2024, when Guingamp won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valenciennes's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Valenciennes
3
Draws
2
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valenciennes and Guingamp?
From 6 meetings on record, Valenciennes have won 1, Guingamp have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Valenciennes and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Guingamp 3-0 Valenciennes.
Who has won more matches between Valenciennes and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Valenciennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valenciennes 54%, Guingamp 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Valenciennes) and 46% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Valenciennes keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Valenciennes have failed to score in 29% of games; Guingamp in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valenciennes home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valenciennes play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Valenciennes's recent matches and 50% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valenciennes vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Valenciennes's recent games and 46% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valenciennes and Guingamp tend to score early?
Valenciennes have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Valenciennes edge out Guingamp 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valenciennes beat Guingamp 1-0 at Stade du Hainaut, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valenciennes 1.50 xG and Guingamp 1.41 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Guingamp landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valenciennes attack 1.10 / defence 0.95 against Guingamp attack 1.30 / defence 1.12, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valenciennes 40% | Draw 25% | Guingamp 36%, with Valenciennes to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valenciennes 37%, Guingamp 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valenciennes's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Guingamp's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valenciennes 1.29 PPG, Guingamp 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valenciennes win broke the near-deadlock. Valenciennes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.