Le Havre 3-0 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Le Havre at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Le Havre vs Bastia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Océane plays host to Le Havre versus Bastia in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Saturday 8 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Le Havre (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Le Havre's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stade Océane this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Océane this season.
Bastia's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bastia away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for Le Havre against 1.60 for Bastia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Le Havre 0W, Bastia 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2022, ended 2–4 with Bastia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Le Havre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Bastia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 42% versus Bastia 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Le Havre 35% | Bastia 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.45 xG and Bastia 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 1.005 / defence 0.915 | Bastia attack 1.082 / defence 1.199. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.115. Data: 48 Le Havre games / 48 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 45% | Draw 26% | Bastia 29%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Bastia 3.45. Le Havre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Le Havre at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Le Havre if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Le Havre 60% | Bastia 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 45% | Draw 26% | Bastia 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Le Havre 1.45 / Bastia 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 1.005 / def 0.915 | Bastia attack 1.082 / def 1.199 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Bastia xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Bastia kick off?
Le Havre vs Bastia kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Bastia?
Le Havre 3 - 0 Bastia.
Where is Le Havre vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Bastia part of?
Le Havre vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 45% chance of winning, Bastia a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Le Havre and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Bastia?
Record (2 meetings): Le Havre 0W | Draws 1 | Bastia 1W.
What form are Le Havre and Bastia in?
Le Havre (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Bastia (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Le Havre's attack at 1.00x the league average against Bastia's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bastia's attack (1.08x) against Le Havre's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
45%
2.22
26%
3.82
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.55
1.10
Bastia xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
15%
6.71
7%
14.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.5 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.10 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 48 outings, Le Havre have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 18W 15D 15L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bastia's form line: 15W 17D 16L from 48 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Le Havre against 1.29 for Bastia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Le Havre have posted 1.33 PPG from 24 outings (8W 8D 8L).
On the road, Bastia have gone 7W 5D 12L from 24 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Le Havre are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.04 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Bastia in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Bastia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Bastia in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 18W 15D 15L in their last 48 games (1.44 PPG), while Bastia have gone 15W 17D 16L in their last 48 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Bastia away?
Le Havre's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.33 PPG; Bastia away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Bastia in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Le Havre won 3-0 on 8 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Le Havre have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Bastia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Le Havre
2
Draws
1
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Bastia?
From 4 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 1, Bastia have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 26 May 2023, when Bastia 1-1 Le Havre.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 46%, Bastia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Le Havre) and 46% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: Le Havre keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Le Havre have failed to score in 33% of games; Bastia in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Le Havre's recent matches and 50% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Le Havre's recent games and 46% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Bastia tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Bastia in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Le Havre run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Bastia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre beat Bastia 3-0 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.45 xG and Bastia 1.10 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Le Havre beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bastia landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 1.00 / defence 0.92 against Bastia attack 1.08 / defence 1.20, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 45% | Draw 26% | Bastia 29%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 35%, Bastia 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bastia's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Le Havre 1.44 PPG, Bastia 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Le Havre win broke the near-deadlock. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Bastia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.