Le Havre 2-0 Metz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Le Havre at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Le Havre vs Metz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Metz travel to Stade Océane to take on Le Havre. The game is scheduled for Monday 24 October 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Le Havre — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Océane, Le Havre have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Océane this season.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Metz have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Metz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Metz have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Le Havre are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 2 data — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Le Havre in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Metz in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 42% versus Metz 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 36% | Metz 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.64 xG and Metz 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 1.123 / defence 0.821 | Metz attack 0.986 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 1.183 / away 1.069. Metz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.233 — this is suppressing Le Havre's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Le Havre games / 12 Metz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 56% | Draw 25% | Metz 20%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Metz 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Le Havre (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Le Havre are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Le Havre 60% | Metz 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Metz | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Monday 24 Oct 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 56% | Draw 25% | Metz 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 47% | xG Le Havre 1.64 / Metz 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 1.123 / def 0.821 | Metz attack 0.986 / def 1.233 | league avg home 1.183 / away 1.069 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Metz xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Metz kick off?
Le Havre vs Metz kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 24 October 2022 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Metz?
Le Havre 2 - 0 Metz.
Where is Le Havre vs Metz being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Metz part of?
Le Havre vs Metz is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Metz?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 56% chance of winning, Metz a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Metz?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Le Havre and Metz will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Metz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Metz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Le Havre and Metz in?
Le Havre (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Metz (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Le Havre's attack at 1.12x the league average against Metz's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Metz's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
56%
1.80
25%
4.07
20%
5.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.50
0.87
Metz xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
5.06
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
19%
5.15
Win to Nil
23%
4.27
4%
26.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 11.6 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Metz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Metz expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Le Havre and 0.87 for Metz, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Metz?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Le Havre's recent record stands at 19W 16D 15L from 50 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Metz, meanwhile, have gone 10W 16D 24L across 50 games — 0.92 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Metz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Le Havre by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Metz heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Le Havre have managed 9W 7D 8L from 24 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Metz's away record stands at 4W 7D 13L across 24 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Le Havre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Le Havre are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Metz are on 1.04 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Defensively: Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Metz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Metz in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 19W 16D 15L in their last 50 games (1.46 PPG), while Metz have gone 10W 16D 24L in their last 50 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Metz away?
Le Havre's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.42 PPG; Metz away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Metz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Metz in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Le Havre and Metz runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Le Havre's record when hosting Metz specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Le Havre
4
Draws
1
Metz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Metz?
From 6 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 1, Metz have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Metz last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Le Havre 4-4 Metz.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 46%, Metz 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Le Havre) and 50% (Metz).
On the defensive side: Le Havre keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Le Havre have failed to score in 29% of games; Metz in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Metz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Metz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Le Havre's recent matches and 42% of Metz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Metz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Le Havre's recent games and 50% of Metz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Metz tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Metz in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Le Havre cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Metz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre beat Metz 2-0 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.64 xG and Metz 0.87 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Metz landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 1.12 / defence 0.82 against Metz attack 0.99 / defence 1.23, drawn from 50/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 56% | Draw 25% | Metz 20%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 36%, Metz 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Metz's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Le Havre arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Metz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.