Dijon 0-0 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dijon at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dijon vs Quevilly fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Gaston-Gérard plays host to Dijon versus Quevilly in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 15 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Dijon (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dijon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dijon's home record at Stade Gaston-Gérard: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Quevilly's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Quevilly have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Dijon against 1.20 for Quevilly. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Dijon 1W, Quevilly 1W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2022, ended 1–0 with Dijon winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Dijon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Quevilly goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dijon 53% versus Quevilly 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dijon 53% | Quevilly 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 1.14 xG and Quevilly 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 0.877 / defence 1.044 | Quevilly attack 0.729 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.210 / away 1.147. Data: 49 Dijon games / 49 Quevilly games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dijon 42% | Draw 30% | Quevilly 28%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Quevilly 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dijon at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dijon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Dijon 50% | Quevilly 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dijon vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade Gaston-Gérard • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dijon 42% | Draw 30% | Quevilly 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Dijon 1.14 / Quevilly 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Dijon attack 0.877 / def 1.044 | Quevilly attack 0.729 / def 1.070 | league avg home 1.210 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Dijon (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Dijon xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Quevilly xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dijon vs Quevilly kick off?
Dijon vs Quevilly kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What was the final score in Dijon vs Quevilly?
Dijon 0 - 0 Quevilly.
Where is Dijon vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What competition is Dijon vs Quevilly part of?
Dijon vs Quevilly is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dijon vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives Dijon a 42% chance of winning, Quevilly a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Dijon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Dijon and Quevilly will score (BTTS).
Will Dijon vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Quevilly?
Record (2 meetings): Dijon 1W | Draws 0 | Quevilly 1W.
What form are Dijon and Quevilly in?
Dijon (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Quevilly (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dijon's attack rating (0.88) and Quevilly's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Quevilly's attack (0.73x) against Dijon's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dijon Win
42%
2.40
30%
3.29
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Dijon xG
Total xG
2.01
0.87
Quevilly xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
17%
5.75
9%
11.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 11.7 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.3 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dijon vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Dijon and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Dijon and 0.87 for Quevilly, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Dijon vs Quevilly?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 49 outings, Dijon have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 16W 11D 22L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Dijon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Quevilly's form line: 14W 13D 22L from 49 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-W. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Dijon against 1.12 for Quevilly. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Dijon have posted 1.48 PPG from 23 outings (10W 4D 9L).
On the road, Quevilly have gone 6W 3D 14L from 23 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dijon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dijon are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 0.96 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dijon
Blended
Quevilly
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dijon and Quevilly in coming into this match?
Dijon have gone 16W 11D 22L in their last 49 games (1.20 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 14W 13D 22L in their last 49 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dijon at home or Quevilly away?
Dijon's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dijon at home: 1.48 PPG; Quevilly away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dijon have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Quevilly — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Dijon
2
Draws
1
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Quevilly?
From 4 meetings on record, Dijon have won 1, Quevilly have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dijon and Quevilly last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2023, when Quevilly 2-2 Dijon.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dijon 44%, Quevilly 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Dijon) and 44% (Quevilly).
On the defensive side: Dijon keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Dijon have failed to score in 30% of games; Quevilly in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dijon home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dijon play Quevilly?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Dijon's recent matches and 30% of Quevilly's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dijon vs Quevilly usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Dijon's recent games and 44% of Quevilly's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dijon and Quevilly tend to score early?
Dijon have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Quevilly in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Dijon's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Regular Season - 12, as Dijon and Quevilly drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dijon 1.14 xG and Quevilly 0.87 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Dijon fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Quevilly landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dijon attack 0.88 / defence 1.04 against Quevilly attack 0.73 / defence 1.07, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dijon 42% | Draw 30% | Quevilly 28%, with Dijon to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dijon 53%, Quevilly 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dijon's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Quevilly's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dijon 1.20 PPG, Quevilly 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Dijon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Quevilly (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.