Bordeaux 0-0 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bordeaux at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bordeaux vs Saint Etienne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Saint Etienne travel to Stade Matmut-Atlantique to take on Bordeaux. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 December 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Bordeaux have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bordeaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bordeaux at Stade Matmut-Atlantique this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Bordeaux are significantly better at Stade Matmut-Atlantique than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Saint Etienne stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Saint Etienne away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Saint Etienne's 1.30 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Bordeaux's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Bordeaux, 1 for Saint Etienne and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Bordeaux in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Saint Etienne in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bordeaux 41% versus Saint Etienne 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bordeaux 43% | Saint Etienne 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bordeaux 1.36 xG and Saint Etienne 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bordeaux attack 1.014 / defence 1.049 | Saint Etienne attack 0.971 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 1.142. Data: 54 Bordeaux games / 55 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bordeaux 41% | Draw 27% | Saint Etienne 32%. Fair-value odds: Bordeaux 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Saint Etienne 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bordeaux at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Saint Etienne (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bordeaux offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Bordeaux 40% | Saint Etienne 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bordeaux vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade Matmut-Atlantique • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Dec 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bordeaux 41% | Draw 27% | Saint Etienne 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Bordeaux 1.36 / Saint Etienne 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Bordeaux attack 1.014 / def 1.049 | Saint Etienne attack 0.971 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.266 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Bordeaux (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Bordeaux xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Saint Etienne xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bordeaux vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Bordeaux vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 16 December 2023 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What was the final score in Bordeaux vs Saint Etienne?
Bordeaux 0 - 0 Saint Etienne.
Where is Bordeaux vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What competition is Bordeaux vs Saint Etienne part of?
Bordeaux vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bordeaux vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Bordeaux a 41% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bordeaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bordeaux vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Bordeaux and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Bordeaux vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Saint Etienne?
Record (4 meetings): Bordeaux 1W | Draws 2 | Saint Etienne 1W.
What form are Bordeaux and Saint Etienne in?
Bordeaux (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Saint Etienne (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bordeaux's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Saint Etienne's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Saint Etienne's attack versus Bordeaux's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bordeaux Win
41%
2.43
27%
3.71
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Bordeaux xG
Total xG
2.52
1.16
Saint Etienne xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
13%
7.79
8%
12.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.7 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bordeaux vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Bordeaux and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Bordeaux and 1.16 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Bordeaux vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bordeaux come into this having played 54 games, going 25W 13D 16L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Bordeaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Saint Etienne sit at 1.48 PPG from 54 outings (22W 14D 18L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bordeaux on 1.63 PPG, Saint Etienne on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bordeaux's home form reads 15W 6D 5L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Saint Etienne have taken 1.35 points per game from 26 outings (9W 8D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bordeaux come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bordeaux are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.46 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Bordeaux have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bordeaux
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bordeaux and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Bordeaux have gone 25W 13D 16L in their last 54 games (1.63 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 22W 14D 18L in their last 54 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bordeaux at home or Saint Etienne away?
Bordeaux's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bordeaux at home: 1.96 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Bordeaux or Saint Etienne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bordeaux have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Saint Etienne in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bordeaux and Saint Etienne runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bordeaux's record when hosting Saint Etienne specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Bordeaux
3
Draws
2
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Saint Etienne?
From 6 meetings on record, Bordeaux have won 1, Saint Etienne have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bordeaux and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when Saint Etienne 2-1 Bordeaux.
Who has won more matches between Bordeaux and Saint Etienne?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bordeaux 42%, Saint Etienne 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Bordeaux) and 58% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: Bordeaux keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bordeaux home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bordeaux play Saint Etienne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of Bordeaux's games and 69% of Saint Etienne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bordeaux vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Bordeaux's recent games and 58% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bordeaux and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Bordeaux have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bordeaux's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bordeaux and Saint Etienne finished level at 0-0 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bordeaux 1.36 xG and Saint Etienne 1.16 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bordeaux fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Saint Etienne landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bordeaux attack 1.01 / defence 1.05 against Saint Etienne attack 0.97 / defence 1.06, drawn from 54/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bordeaux 41% | Draw 27% | Saint Etienne 32%, with Bordeaux to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bordeaux 43%, Saint Etienne 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bordeaux's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bordeaux 1.63 PPG, Saint Etienne 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bordeaux (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.