Auxerre 2-0 Ajaccio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Auxerre at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Auxerre vs Ajaccio encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Auxerre and Ajaccio meet at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 December 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Auxerre (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Auxerre's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps this season.
Ajaccio have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Ajaccio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Ajaccio have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Auxerre against 1.80 for Ajaccio. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Auxerre, 0 for Ajaccio and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2023, ended 3–0 with Auxerre winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Auxerre — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Ajaccio — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 51% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 60% versus Ajaccio 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 53% | Ajaccio 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.81 xG and Ajaccio 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 1.321 / defence 1.147 | Ajaccio attack 0.709 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 1.142. Auxerre carry an above-average attack strength of 1.321 — their λ of 1.81 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 17 Auxerre games / 17 Ajaccio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 58% | Draw 23% | Ajaccio 19%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Ajaccio 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Auxerre (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Auxerre are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data: Auxerre 60% | Ajaccio 10% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Ajaccio | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Dec 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 58% | Draw 23% | Ajaccio 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 51% | xG Auxerre 1.81 / Ajaccio 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 1.321 / def 1.147 | Ajaccio attack 0.709 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.266 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Ajaccio xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Ajaccio kick off?
Auxerre vs Ajaccio kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 16 December 2023 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Ajaccio?
Auxerre 2 - 0 Ajaccio.
Where is Auxerre vs Ajaccio being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Ajaccio part of?
Auxerre vs Ajaccio is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Ajaccio?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 58% chance of winning, Ajaccio a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Ajaccio?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Auxerre and Ajaccio will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Ajaccio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Ajaccio?
Record (4 meetings): Auxerre 2W | Draws 2 | Ajaccio 0W.
What form are Auxerre and Ajaccio in?
Auxerre (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Ajaccio (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Auxerre's attack at 1.32x the league average against Ajaccio's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ajaccio's attack (0.71x) against Auxerre's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
58%
1.72
23%
4.35
19%
5.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.74
0.93
Ajaccio xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
5.30
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
16%
6.14
Win to Nil
23%
4.36
3%
32.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 10.8 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Ajaccio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Ajaccio expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Auxerre and 0.93 for Ajaccio, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Ajaccio?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 55 outings, Auxerre have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 17W 16D 22L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajaccio's form line: 14W 11D 30L from 55 games, 0.96 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-W. The sample for Ajaccio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Auxerre against 0.96 for Ajaccio. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Auxerre have posted 1.33 PPG from 27 outings (9W 9D 9L).
On the road, Ajaccio have gone 5W 4D 18L from 27 away games — 0.70 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Auxerre are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Ajaccio are on 0.75 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Auxerre have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Ajaccio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Ajaccio in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 17W 16D 22L in their last 55 games (1.22 PPG), while Ajaccio have gone 14W 11D 30L in their last 55 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Ajaccio away?
Auxerre's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.33 PPG; Ajaccio away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Auxerre have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Auxerre won 0-3 on 9 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Auxerre have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ajaccio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Auxerre
2
Draws
0
Ajaccio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Ajaccio?
From 6 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 4, Ajaccio have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Ajaccio last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2024, when Ajaccio 0-1 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Ajaccio?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Ajaccio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 56%, Ajaccio 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Auxerre) and 63% (Ajaccio). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 15% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Auxerre have failed to score in 30% of games; Ajaccio in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Ajaccio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Ajaccio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Auxerre's recent matches and 37% of Ajaccio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Ajaccio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Auxerre's matches and 63% of Ajaccio's.
Do Auxerre and Ajaccio tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Ajaccio in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Auxerre cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ajaccio.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Ajaccio 2-0 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.81 xG and Ajaccio 0.93 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ajaccio landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 1.32 / defence 1.15 against Ajaccio attack 0.71 / defence 1.08, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 58% | Draw 23% | Ajaccio 19%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 53%, Ajaccio 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Ajaccio's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 51% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.22 PPG, Ajaccio 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Auxerre win broke the near-deadlock. Auxerre (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.