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Poisson model rates RED Star FC 93 at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this RED Star FC 93 vs PAU fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees PAU travel to Stade Bauer to take on RED Star FC 93. The game is scheduled for Friday 20 November 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

RED Star FC 93 — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. RED Star FC 93 haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, RED Star FC 93 have posted 4W 4D 2L at Stade Bauer — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, PAU have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. PAU haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

PAU's form when playing away from home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

On current form, RED Star FC 93 have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H Record

The previous 8 encounters between these sides heavily favour PAU, who boast 5 victories compared to 1 for RED Star FC 93.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2026, ended 0–3 with PAU winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. PAU have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Table Standings

In the Ligue 2 table, RED Star FC 93 sit 4th on 58 points, 5 places and 13 points ahead of PAU in 9th.

RED Star FC 93's home record this season stands at 7W 7D 3L. On the road, PAU's record stands at 7W 4D 6L this term. RED Star FC 93: Promotion Playoffs.

In-Play Profile

RED Star FC 93 in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

PAU in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RED Star FC 93 50% versus PAU 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RED Star FC 93 53% | PAU 68%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects RED Star FC 93 1.83 xG and PAU 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RED Star FC 93 attack 1.035 / defence 1.009 | PAU attack 1.076 / defence 1.289. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.258. PAU bring a strong defensive rating of 1.289 — this is suppressing RED Star FC 93's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 RED Star FC 93 games / 34 PAU games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 47% | Draw 25% | PAU 28%. Fair-value odds: RED Star FC 93 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | PAU 3.57. RED Star FC 93 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

PAU lead the H2H ledger, but RED Star FC 93 carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

On the Poisson output, RED Star FC 93 are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RED Star FC 93 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.19 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates are neutral: RED Star FC 93 60% | PAU 40%.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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