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Poisson rates Rodez at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guingamp vs Rodez encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 13 as Guingamp welcome Rodez to Stade de Roudourou. Kick-off is set for Friday 20 November 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Guingamp have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Guingamp haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Guingamp's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stade de Roudourou this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Guingamp are significantly better at Stade de Roudourou than their overall form suggests.

Rodez — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Rodez haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Rodez away from home this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Rodez — 1.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Guingamp: 4 wins from 10 previous clashes against 1 for Rodez, with 5 draws across those contests.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The historical record gives Guingamp a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Table Standings

In the Ligue 2 table, Rodez sit 5th on 58 points, 6 places and 18 points ahead of Guingamp in 11th.

On home turf, Guingamp's Ligue 2 record reads 6W 5D 6L this term. Away from home, Rodez have posted 7W 6D 4L in Ligue 2 this season. Rodez: Promotion Playoffs.

In-Play Data

Guingamp trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Rodez trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Guingamp 50% and Rodez 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 56% | Rodez 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.08 xG and Rodez 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 0.870 / defence 0.953 | Rodez attack 1.027 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.258. Data: 34 Guingamp games / 34 Rodez games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Guingamp 31% | Draw 31% | Rodez 38%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Rodez 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Guingamp dominate the H2H record, yet Rodez are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.

Poisson rates Rodez as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rodez offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Guingamp 30% | Rodez 70%.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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