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Poisson model rates Annecy at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Annecy vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Clermont Foot travel to Parc des Sports to take on Annecy. The game is scheduled for Friday 20 November 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Annecy have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Annecy haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Annecy at Parc des Sports this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Clermont Foot — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Clermont Foot haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Clermont Foot have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Annecy 1.60 PPG, Clermont Foot 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Annecy register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Clermont Foot in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Table Context

The standings have Annecy (7th, 52 pts) 6 places above Clermont Foot (13th, 37 pts) — a 15-point gap in Ligue 2.

At home this season, Annecy have gone 7W 6D 4L. Clermont Foot have gone 4W 4D 9L on their travels.

Trading Patterns

Annecy in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

Clermont Foot in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 53% versus Clermont Foot 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 56% | Clermont Foot 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.50 xG and Clermont Foot 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.069 / defence 0.926 | Clermont Foot attack 1.010 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.258. Data: 34 Annecy games / 34 Clermont Foot games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Annecy 43% | Draw 29% | Clermont Foot 28%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Clermont Foot 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Annecy as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 70% | Clermont Foot 60% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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