RED Star FC 93 3-1 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Guingamp at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp meet at Stade de Paris in Ligue 2 (matchday 25). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 March 2025 at 13:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
RED Star FC 93 have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
RED Star FC 93's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Guingamp's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Guingamp away from home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Guingamp arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, RED Star FC 93 edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 7.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 30 Aug 2024, ended RED Star FC 93 4–3 Guingamp — a RED Star FC 93 win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 7.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
RED Star FC 93 — key trading statistics (last 24 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Guingamp — key trading statistics (last 24 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RED Star FC 93 46% versus Guingamp 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RED Star FC 93 50% | Guingamp 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RED Star FC 93 0.97 xG and Guingamp 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.850 / defence 1.315 | Guingamp attack 1.244 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.059. Guingamp have an above-average attack rating of 1.244, which lifts their away xG to 1.73. RED Star FC 93's defence rating of 1.315 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Guingamp's projected output up. Data: built from RED Star FC 93's last 24 games and Guingamp's last 62.
Result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 21% | Draw 24% | Guingamp 55%. Fair-value odds: RED Star FC 93 4.74 | Draw 4.22 | Guingamp 1.81. The model has a clear lean to Guingamp (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (RED Star FC 93's last 10 home games and Guingamp's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: RED Star FC 93 50% (last 10 home games) | Guingamp 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 25 | Venue: Stade de Paris • Kick-off: Saturday 1 March 2025 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 21% | Draw 24% | Guingamp 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG RED Star FC 93 0.97 / Guingamp 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.850 / def 1.315 | Guingamp attack 1.244 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.208 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
RED Star FC 93 xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Guingamp xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp FAQs
What time does RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp kick off?
RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 1 March 2025 at Stade de Paris.
What was the final score in RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp?
RED Star FC 93 3 - 1 Guingamp.
Where is RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Paris.
What competition is RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp part of?
RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 25) (France).
Who is favourite to win RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives RED Star FC 93 a 21% chance of winning, Guingamp a 55% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from RED Star FC 93's attack rating (0.85) and Guingamp's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Guingamp's attack (1.24x) against RED Star FC 93's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from RED Star FC 93's last 24 games and Guingamp's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 0-2 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
21%
4.74
24%
4.22
55%
1.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
RED Star FC 93 xG
Total xG
2.70
1.73
Guingamp xG
4.74
21%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
1.81
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
18%
5.65
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
4%
26.81
21%
4.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 11.6 | 10.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for RED Star FC 93 and 1.73 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 24 outings, RED Star FC 93 have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 7W 5D 12L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Guingamp's form line: 12W 3D 9L from 24 games, 1.62 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Guingamp are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against RED Star FC 93.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, RED Star FC 93 have posted 1.27 PPG from their last 11 home games (4W 2D 5L).
On the road, Guingamp have gone 5W 1D 5L from their last 11 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
RED Star FC 93 are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.62 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Guingamp in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RED Star FC 93
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
RED Star FC 93 (Home) vs Guingamp (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
RED Star FC 93
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp Form FAQs
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp in coming into this match?
RED Star FC 93 have gone 7W 5D 12L in their last 24 games (1.08 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 12W 3D 9L in their last 24 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RED Star FC 93 at home or Guingamp away?
Guingamp's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RED Star FC 93 at home: 1.27 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.45 PPG.
Have RED Star FC 93 or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
RED Star FC 93 have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Guingamp in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 5 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
RED Star FC 93 have won each of the latest 5 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: RED Star FC 93 won Guingamp 0-4 RED Star FC 93 on 23 Aug 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RED Star FC 93 have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Guingamp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
5
RED Star FC 93
0
Draws
0
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, RED Star FC 93 have won 5, Guingamp have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: Guingamp 1-3 RED Star FC 93.
Who has won more matches between RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp?
RED Star FC 93 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RED Star FC 93 46%, Guingamp 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (RED Star FC 93) and 54% (Guingamp). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RED Star FC 93 keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; RED Star FC 93 have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RED Star FC 93 home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of RED Star FC 93's recent matches and 54% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of RED Star FC 93's matches and 54% of Guingamp's.
Do RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of RED Star FC 93's recent matches and 82% of Guingamp's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
RED Star FC 93 cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Guingamp.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RED Star FC 93 beat Guingamp 3-1 at Stade de Paris, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RED Star FC 93 0.97 xG and Guingamp 1.73 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. RED Star FC 93 beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RED Star FC 93 attack 0.85 / defence 1.31 against Guingamp attack 1.24 / defence 0.95, drawn from 24/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RED Star FC 93 21% | Draw 24% | Guingamp 55%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a RED Star FC 93 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RED Star FC 93 50%, Guingamp 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RED Star FC 93's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Guingamp's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Guingamp arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with RED Star FC 93 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Guingamp (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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