Estac Troyes 2-0 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estac Troyes at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estac Troyes vs Bastia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Bastia travel to Stade de l'Aube to take on Estac Troyes. The game is scheduled for Friday 28 February 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Estac Troyes — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade de l'Aube, Estac Troyes have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de l'Aube. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bastia stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bastia have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Estac Troyes at 1.20 PPG versus Bastia's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Estac Troyes have won 1, Bastia 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Estac Troyes trading profile (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Bastia trading profile (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 45% versus Bastia 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 52% | Bastia 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.13 xG and Bastia 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 0.962 / defence 0.891 | Bastia attack 0.914 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.219 / away 1.057. Data: 62 Estac Troyes games / 62 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 42% | Draw 31% | Bastia 28%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Bastia 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Estac Troyes are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.99 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Estac Troyes 10% | Bastia 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Friday 28 Feb 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 42% | Draw 31% | Bastia 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Estac Troyes 1.13 / Bastia 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 0.962 / def 0.891 | Bastia attack 0.914 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.219 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Bastia xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Bastia kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Bastia kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 28 February 2025 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Bastia?
Estac Troyes 2 - 0 Bastia.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Bastia part of?
Estac Troyes vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 42% chance of winning, Bastia a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Estac Troyes and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Bastia?
Record (3 meetings): Estac Troyes 1W | Draws 1 | Bastia 1W.
What form are Estac Troyes and Bastia in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Bastia (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Estac Troyes's attack rating (0.96) and Bastia's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bastia's attack versus Estac Troyes's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
42%
2.40
31%
3.27
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
1.99
0.86
Bastia xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
18%
5.67
9%
11.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 11.8 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 0.86 for Bastia, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Estac Troyes's recent record stands at 17W 18D 27L from 62 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bastia, meanwhile, have gone 21W 22D 19L across 62 games — 1.37 PPG, with D-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Estac Troyes on 1.11 PPG, Bastia on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Estac Troyes have managed 11W 7D 12L from 30 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bastia's away record stands at 8W 9D 13L across 30 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.16 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Blended
Bastia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Bastia in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 17W 18D 27L in their last 62 games (1.11 PPG), while Bastia have gone 21W 22D 19L in their last 62 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Bastia away?
Estac Troyes's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 1.33 PPG; Bastia away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Estac Troyes or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Bastia in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 16 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Estac Troyes's record when hosting Bastia specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Estac Troyes
2
Draws
1
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Bastia?
From 6 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 3, Bastia have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2026, when Bastia 0-0 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Bastia?
Estac Troyes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 50%, Bastia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Estac Troyes) and 37% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes have failed to score in 33% of games; Bastia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Estac Troyes's recent matches and 50% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estac Troyes vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Estac Troyes's recent games and 37% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estac Troyes and Bastia tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Bastia in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Estac Troyes cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bastia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estac Troyes beat Bastia 2-0 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.13 xG and Bastia 0.86 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Estac Troyes beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bastia landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 0.96 / defence 0.89 against Bastia attack 0.91 / defence 0.96, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 42% | Draw 31% | Bastia 28%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 52%, Bastia 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Bastia's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estac Troyes 1.11 PPG, Bastia 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estac Troyes win broke the near-deadlock. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Bastia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.