Annecy 2-3 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Paris FC at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Annecy vs Paris FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Paris FC make the trip to Parc des Sports to face Annecy in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Friday 28 February 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Annecy (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Annecy at Parc des Sports this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parc des Sports. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Annecy are significantly better at Parc des Sports than their overall form suggests.
Paris FC have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Paris FC have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Annecy have seen both teams score in just 10% of their matches, Paris FC in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Annecy, 2 for Paris FC and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Annecy half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Paris FC half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 48% versus Paris FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 50% | Paris FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 0.94 xG and Paris FC 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.909 / defence 0.998 | Paris FC attack 0.935 / defence 0.844. League average goals — home 1.219 / away 1.057. Data: 62 Annecy games / 62 Paris FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 33% | Draw 32% | Paris FC 36%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Paris FC 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Paris FC as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Paris FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.92 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 10% | Paris FC 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Friday 28 Feb 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 33% | Draw 32% | Paris FC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Annecy 0.94 / Paris FC 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.909 / def 0.998 | Paris FC attack 0.935 / def 0.844 | league avg home 1.219 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Paris FC xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Paris FC kick off?
Annecy vs Paris FC kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 28 February 2025 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Paris FC?
Annecy 2 - 3 Paris FC.
Where is Annecy vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Paris FC part of?
Annecy vs Paris FC is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 33% chance of winning, Paris FC a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Annecy and Paris FC will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Paris FC?
Record (5 meetings): Annecy 1W | Draws 2 | Paris FC 2W.
What form are Annecy and Paris FC in?
Annecy (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Paris FC (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Annecy's attack rating (0.91) and Paris FC's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Paris FC's attack (0.94x) against Annecy's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
33%
3.04
32%
3.16
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Annecy xG
Total xG
1.92
0.99
Paris FC xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
12%
8.16
14%
7.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 14.4 | 7.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Annecy and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Annecy and 0.99 for Paris FC, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 62 outings, Annecy have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 23W 16D 23L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Paris FC's form line: 30W 16D 16L from 62 games, 1.71 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Paris FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Annecy against 1.71 for Paris FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Annecy have posted 1.43 PPG from 30 outings (12W 7D 11L).
On the road, Paris FC have gone 12W 10D 8L from 30 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Annecy are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.40 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Paris FC in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Blended
Paris FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 23W 16D 23L in their last 62 games (1.37 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 30W 16D 16L in their last 62 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Paris FC away?
Paris FC's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.43 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Annecy or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Paris FC in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since January 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Annecy have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Paris FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Annecy
2
Draws
3
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Paris FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Annecy have won 1, Paris FC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Paris FC last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2025, when Annecy 2-3 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Paris FC?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 43%, Paris FC 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Annecy) and 37% (Paris FC).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Paris FC in 40%; Annecy have failed to score in 27% of games; Paris FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Paris FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Annecy's recent matches and 43% of Paris FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Paris FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Annecy's recent games and 37% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Paris FC tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Paris FC in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Paris FC edge out Annecy 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris FC beat Annecy 2-3 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 0.94 xG and Paris FC 0.99 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Annecy beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Paris FC outscored their 0.99 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.91 / defence 1.00 against Paris FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.84, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 33% | Draw 32% | Paris FC 36%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 50%, Paris FC 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Paris FC's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.37 PPG, Paris FC 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Paris FC win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Paris FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.