Annecy 2-3 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Paris FC at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Annecy face Paris FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Paris FC make the trip to Parc des Sports to face Annecy in Ligue 2 (matchday 25). The match kicks off on Friday 28 February 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
Annecy (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Annecy at home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Annecy are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Paris FC have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Paris FC have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from Annecy's last 10 home games and Paris FC's last 10 away games) — Annecy have seen both teams score in just 10% of their matches, Paris FC in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Paris FC edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Nov 2024, ended Annecy 0–0 Paris FC — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Annecy half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Paris FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 48% versus Paris FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 50% | Paris FC 47%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Annecy surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Paris FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 44% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 0.94 xG and Paris FC 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.909 / defence 0.998 | Paris FC attack 0.935 / defence 0.844. League average goals — home 1.219 / away 1.057. Data: built from Annecy's last 62 games and Paris FC's last 62.
Result probabilities: Annecy 33% | Draw 32% | Paris FC 36%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 3.04 | Draw 3.16 | Paris FC 2.81. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Paris FC as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Paris FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.92 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Annecy's last 10 home games and Paris FC's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Annecy 10% (last 10 home games) | Paris FC 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 25 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Friday 28 February 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 33% | Draw 32% | Paris FC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% (Under 70%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Annecy 0.94 / Paris FC 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.909 / def 0.998 | Paris FC attack 0.935 / def 0.844 | league avg home 1.219 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Paris FC xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Annecy vs Paris FC FAQs
What time does Annecy vs Paris FC kick off?
Annecy vs Paris FC kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 28 February 2025 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Paris FC?
Annecy 2 - 3 Paris FC.
Where is Annecy vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Paris FC part of?
Annecy vs Paris FC is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 25) (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 33% chance of winning, Paris FC a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Annecy and Paris FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Annecy vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (70%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Annecy's attack rating (0.91) and Paris FC's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Paris FC's attack (0.94x) against Annecy's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from Annecy's last 62 games and Paris FC's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
33%
3.04
32%
3.16
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Annecy xG
Total xG
1.92
0.99
Paris FC xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
12%
8.16
14%
7.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 14.4 | 7.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Annecy vs Paris FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Annecy and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Annecy and 0.99 for Paris FC, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 62 outings, Annecy have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 23W 16D 23L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Paris FC's form line: 30W 16D 16L from 62 games, 1.71 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Annecy against 1.71 for Paris FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Annecy have posted 1.43 PPG from their last 30 home games (12W 7D 11L).
On the road, Paris FC have gone 12W 10D 8L from their last 30 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Annecy are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.40 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Paris FC in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Blended
Paris FC
Blended
Annecy (Home) vs Paris FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Annecy
Blended
Paris FC
Blended
❓ Annecy vs Paris FC Form FAQs
What form are Annecy and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 23W 16D 23L in their last 62 games (1.37 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 30W 16D 16L in their last 62 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Paris FC away?
Paris FC's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.43 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Annecy or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Paris FC in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to January 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 28 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Annecy have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Paris FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Annecy
2
Draws
3
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Annecy vs Paris FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Paris FC?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Annecy have won 1, Paris FC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Paris FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2025: Annecy 2-3 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Paris FC?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 43%, Paris FC 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Annecy) and 37% (Paris FC).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Paris FC in 40%; Annecy have failed to score in 27% of games; Paris FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Annecy vs Paris FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Annecy and Paris FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Annecy's recent matches and 43% of Paris FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Annecy and Paris FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Annecy's recent games and 37% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Paris FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Annecy's recent matches and 63% of Paris FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Paris FC edge out Annecy 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris FC beat Annecy 2-3 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 0.94 xG and Paris FC 0.99 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Annecy beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Paris FC outscored their 0.99 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.91 / defence 1.00 against Paris FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.84, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 33% | Draw 32% | Paris FC 36%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 50%, Paris FC 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Paris FC's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.37 PPG, Paris FC 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Paris FC win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Paris FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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