Bastia 1-0 RED Star FC 93 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bastia at 61% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bastia face RED Star FC 93.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
RED Star FC 93 travel to Stade Armand-Césari to take on Bastia in Ligue 2 (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Friday 21 February 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bastia stand at 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Bastia's form when playing at home: 3W 7D 0L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, RED Star FC 93 have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
RED Star FC 93's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bastia at 1.40 PPG versus RED Star FC 93's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Bastia have won 0, RED Star FC 93 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 6 Dec 2024, ended Bastia 0–0 RED Star FC 93 — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Bastia trading profile (last 23 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
RED Star FC 93 trading profile (last 23 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 52% versus RED Star FC 93 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bastia 35% | RED Star FC 93 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 1.75 xG and RED Star FC 93 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 1.162 / defence 0.859 | RED Star FC 93 attack 0.825 / defence 1.217. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.086. RED Star FC 93's defence rating of 1.217 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bastia's projected output up. Data: built from Bastia's last 61 games and RED Star FC 93's last 23.
Result probabilities: Bastia 61% | Draw 23% | RED Star FC 93 16%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 1.65 | Draw 4.33 | RED Star FC 93 6.21. The model has a clear lean to Bastia (61%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bastia as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bastia 60% (last 10 home games) | RED Star FC 93 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs RED Star FC 93 | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 24 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Friday 21 February 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 61% | Draw 23% | RED Star FC 93 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Bastia 1.75 / RED Star FC 93 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 1.162 / def 0.859 | RED Star FC 93 attack 0.825 / def 1.217 | league avg home 1.238 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Bastia (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
0.77
RED Star FC 93 xG
44%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bastia vs RED Star FC 93 FAQs
What time does Bastia vs RED Star FC 93 kick off?
Bastia vs RED Star FC 93 kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 21 February 2025 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs RED Star FC 93?
Bastia 1 - 0 RED Star FC 93.
Where is Bastia vs RED Star FC 93 being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs RED Star FC 93 part of?
Bastia vs RED Star FC 93 is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 24) (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs RED Star FC 93?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 61% chance of winning, RED Star FC 93 a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs RED Star FC 93?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Bastia and RED Star FC 93 will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Bastia vs RED Star FC 93 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bastia's attack rating (1.16) and RED Star FC 93's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, RED Star FC 93's attack versus Bastia's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bastia's last 61 games and RED Star FC 93's last 23 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.3%), 1-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
61%
1.65
23%
4.33
16%
6.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Bastia xG
Total xG
2.52
0.77
RED Star FC 93 xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
6.21
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
17%
5.76
Win to Nil
28%
3.55
3%
35.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 10.8 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bastia vs RED Star FC 93 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs RED Star FC 93?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Bastia and RED Star FC 93 expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Bastia and 0.77 for RED Star FC 93, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs RED Star FC 93?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bastia come into this having played 23 games, going 6W 13D 4L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-D.
On the other side, RED Star FC 93 sit at 1.13 PPG from 23 outings (7W 5D 11L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bastia on 1.35 PPG, RED Star FC 93 on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Bastia's home form reads 4W 7D 0L across their last 11 home games, a 1.73 PPG return.
Away from home, RED Star FC 93 have taken 1.09 points per game from their last 11 away games (3W 3D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bastia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bastia are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; RED Star FC 93 are on 1.00 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Blended
RED Star FC 93
Blended
Bastia (Home) vs RED Star FC 93 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bastia
Blended
RED Star FC 93
Blended
❓ Bastia vs RED Star FC 93 Form FAQs
What form are Bastia and RED Star FC 93 in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 6W 13D 4L in their last 23 games (1.35 PPG), while RED Star FC 93 have gone 7W 5D 11L in their last 23 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or RED Star FC 93 away?
Bastia's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.73 PPG; RED Star FC 93 away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Bastia or RED Star FC 93 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, RED Star FC 93 in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 3 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from December 2024. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 11 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Bastia
1
Draws
1
RED Star FC 93
Recent Meetings
❓ Bastia vs RED Star FC 93 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and RED Star FC 93?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Bastia have won 1, RED Star FC 93 have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Bastia and RED Star FC 93 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 April 2026: RED Star FC 93 4-3 Bastia.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bastia see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 54%, RED Star FC 93 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Bastia) and 36% (RED Star FC 93).
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Bastia have failed to score in 27% of games; RED Star FC 93 in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / RED Star FC 93 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bastia vs RED Star FC 93 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bastia and RED Star FC 93 matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Bastia's recent matches and 54% of RED Star FC 93's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bastia and RED Star FC 93 matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Bastia's recent games and 36% of RED Star FC 93's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and RED Star FC 93 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 54% of Bastia's recent matches and 73% of RED Star FC 93's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bastia edge out RED Star FC 93 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia beat RED Star FC 93 1-0 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.75 xG and RED Star FC 93 0.77 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 1.16 / defence 0.86 against RED Star FC 93 attack 0.82 / defence 1.22, drawn from 61/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 61% | Draw 23% | RED Star FC 93 16%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 35%, RED Star FC 93 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
RED Star FC 93's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.35 PPG, RED Star FC 93 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bastia win broke the near-deadlock. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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