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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Clermont Foot travel to Stade du Roudourou to take on Guingamp. The game is scheduled for Friday 7 March 2025, 19:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Guingamp's home record at Stade du Roudourou: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Clermont Foot — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Clermont Foot's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Guingamp 1.40 PPG, Clermont Foot 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Guingamp's 30% rate and Clermont Foot's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Guingamp, 1 for Clermont Foot and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2024, ended 1–4 with Clermont Foot winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Guingamp trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Clermont Foot trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 42% versus Clermont Foot 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 52% | Clermont Foot 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.75 xG and Clermont Foot 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.078 / defence 1.016 | Clermont Foot attack 0.779 / defence 1.313. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.061. Clermont Foot bring a strong defensive rating of 1.313 — this is suppressing Guingamp's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 Guingamp games / 25 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Guingamp 59% | Draw 23% | Clermont Foot 18%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Clermont Foot 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Guingamp (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Guingamp as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 30% | Clermont Foot 30% BTTS from recent games.

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