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Poisson model rates RED Star FC 93 at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Clermont Foot host RED Star FC 93 at Stade Gabriel Montpied in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 20 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Clermont Foot stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Clermont Foot's home record at Stade Gabriel Montpied: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

RED Star FC 93 — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends games from this season and last.

RED Star FC 93's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Clermont Foot 0.90 PPG, RED Star FC 93 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Clermont Foot, 0 for RED Star FC 93 and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Clermont Foot in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

RED Star FC 93 in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 57% versus RED Star FC 93 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 42% | RED Star FC 93 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.08 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.981 / defence 0.981 | RED Star FC 93 attack 0.941 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.120 / away 1.173. Data: 61 Clermont Foot games / 60 RED Star FC 93 games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 35% | Draw 30% | RED Star FC 93 35%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | RED Star FC 93 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Clermont Foot 70% | RED Star FC 93 30%.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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