Amiens 0-1 Ajaccio – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Amiens at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amiens vs Ajaccio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Ajaccio travel to Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne to take on Amiens. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 19 January 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Amiens — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Amiens have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ajaccio stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Ajaccio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Ajaccio have posted 4W 3D 2L from 9 away outings — 1.67 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 9 games (56%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Ajaccio — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Amiens have won 0, Ajaccio 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Jul 2021, ended 1–3 with Ajaccio winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Amiens in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 17% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Ajaccio in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 11% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 68% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Amiens 42% | Ajaccio 16%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Amiens 42% | Ajaccio 10%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.08 xG and Ajaccio 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 1.204 / defence 1.009 | Ajaccio attack 0.844 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 0.978 / away 1.071. Data: 19 Amiens games / 19 Ajaccio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 39% | Draw 31% | Ajaccio 30%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Ajaccio 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Amiens are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ajaccio (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Amiens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.99 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Amiens 40% | Ajaccio 22% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Ajaccio | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Wednesday 19 Jan 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 39% | Draw 31% | Ajaccio 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Amiens 1.08 / Ajaccio 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 1.204 / def 1.009 | Ajaccio attack 0.844 / def 0.918 | league avg home 0.978 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Amiens (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Ajaccio xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Ajaccio kick off?
Amiens vs Ajaccio kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 19 January 2022 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Ajaccio?
Amiens 0 - 1 Ajaccio.
Where is Amiens vs Ajaccio being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Ajaccio part of?
Amiens vs Ajaccio is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Ajaccio?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 39% chance of winning, Ajaccio a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Ajaccio?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Amiens and Ajaccio will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Ajaccio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Ajaccio?
Record (1 meetings): Amiens 0W | Draws 0 | Ajaccio 1W.
What form are Amiens and Ajaccio in?
Amiens (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Ajaccio (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Amiens's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Ajaccio's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, Ajaccio's attack versus Amiens's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
39%
2.57
31%
3.22
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Amiens xG
Total xG
1.99
0.91
Ajaccio xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
16%
6.40
10%
9.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 12.4 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Ajaccio?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Amiens and Ajaccio expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Amiens and 0.91 for Ajaccio, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Ajaccio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 19 outings, Amiens have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 4W 9D 6L record — D-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajaccio's form line: 11W 5D 3L from 19 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Ajaccio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ajaccio are the form team by 0.89 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Amiens.
Venue Form
On home soil, Amiens have posted 1.44 PPG from 9 outings (3W 4D 2L).
On the road, Ajaccio have gone 4W 3D 2L from 9 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Amiens are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Ajaccio are on 1.05 scored and 0.42 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Ajaccio in 16%.
Defensively: Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Ajaccio in 68% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Blended
Ajaccio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Ajaccio in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 4W 9D 6L in their last 19 games (1.11 PPG), while Ajaccio have gone 11W 5D 3L in their last 19 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Ajaccio away?
Ajaccio's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.44 PPG; Ajaccio away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Amiens or Ajaccio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Ajaccio in 68%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Amiens's record when hosting Ajaccio specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Amiens
2
Draws
3
Ajaccio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Ajaccio?
From 6 meetings on record, Amiens have won 1, Ajaccio have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Ajaccio last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2025, when Ajaccio 2-1 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Ajaccio?
Ajaccio have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Ajaccio see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Amiens 33% BTTS, Ajaccio 22%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 56% for Amiens and 11% for Ajaccio.
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Ajaccio in 56%; Amiens have failed to score in 44% of games; Ajaccio in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Ajaccio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Ajaccio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Amiens's recent matches and 22% of Ajaccio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs Ajaccio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Amiens's recent games and 11% of Ajaccio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Ajaccio tend to score early?
Amiens have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ajaccio in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ajaccio defy the odds to beat Amiens 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajaccio beat Amiens 0-1 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.08 xG and Ajaccio 0.91 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Amiens fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 1.20 / defence 1.01 against Ajaccio attack 0.84 / defence 0.92, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 39% | Draw 31% | Ajaccio 30%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Ajaccio win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 26% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 42%, Ajaccio 10%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 29%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ajaccio's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 16% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 68% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajaccio arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.11. Form held, and they took the win. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.