PAU 0-0 Montpellier – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Montpellier at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as PAU face Montpellier.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
PAU host Montpellier at Nouste Camp in Ligue 2 (matchday 28). Kick-off is Friday 20 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, PAU stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
PAU's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.20 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Montpellier — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Montpellier have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — PAU at 1.20 PPG versus Montpellier's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for PAU, 0 for Montpellier and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 6 Dec 2025, ended PAU 1–0 Montpellier — a PAU win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
PAU trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Montpellier trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 54% versus Montpellier 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 56% | Montpellier 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.11 xG and Montpellier 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 1.094 / defence 1.495 | Montpellier attack 0.813 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.120 / away 1.173. PAU's defence rating of 1.495 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Montpellier's projected output up. Data: built from PAU's last 61 games and Montpellier's last 27.
Result probabilities: PAU 29% | Draw 27% | Montpellier 44%. Fair-value odds: PAU 3.45 | Draw 3.68 | Montpellier 2.28. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Montpellier as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Montpellier offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: PAU 80% (last 10 home games) | Montpellier 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Montpellier | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 28 | Venue: Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Friday 20 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 29% | Draw 27% | Montpellier 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG PAU 1.11 / Montpellier 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 1.094 / def 1.495 | Montpellier attack 0.813 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.120 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Montpellier (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Montpellier xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ PAU vs Montpellier FAQs
What time does PAU vs Montpellier kick off?
PAU vs Montpellier kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 20 March 2026 at Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Montpellier?
PAU 0 - 0 Montpellier.
Where is PAU vs Montpellier being played?
The match is being played at Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Montpellier part of?
PAU vs Montpellier is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 28) (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Montpellier?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 29% chance of winning, Montpellier a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Montpellier the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Montpellier?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both PAU and Montpellier will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will PAU vs Montpellier have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates PAU's attack at 1.09x the league average against Montpellier's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Montpellier's attack versus PAU's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from PAU's last 61 games and Montpellier's last 27 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Montpellier Win
29%
3.45
27%
3.68
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
PAU xG
Total xG
2.54
1.43
Montpellier xG
3.45
29%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
7%
14.33
14%
6.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 11.3 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ PAU vs Montpellier Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Montpellier?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are PAU and Montpellier expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for PAU and 1.43 for Montpellier, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Montpellier?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PAU's recent record stands at 20W 20D 21L from 61 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five.
Montpellier, meanwhile, have gone 16W 9D 36L across 61 games — 0.93 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAU on 1.31 PPG, Montpellier on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, PAU have managed 11W 9D 10L from their last 30 home games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Montpellier's away record stands at 6W 2D 22L across their last 30 away games, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAU come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
PAU are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Montpellier are on 0.92 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Blended
Montpellier
Blended
PAU (Home) vs Montpellier (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
PAU
Blended
Montpellier
Blended
❓ PAU vs Montpellier Form FAQs
What form are PAU and Montpellier in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 20W 20D 21L in their last 61 games (1.31 PPG), while Montpellier have gone 16W 9D 36L in their last 61 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Montpellier away?
PAU's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.40 PPG; Montpellier away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 3 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2025. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was as recently as 11 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Last 3 Meetings
1
PAU
1
Draws
1
Montpellier
Recent Meetings
❓ PAU vs Montpellier H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Montpellier?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, PAU have won 1, Montpellier have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did PAU and Montpellier last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 September 2026: Montpellier 1-0 PAU.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Montpellier are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 50%, Montpellier 23% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (PAU) and 30% (Montpellier).
On the defensive side: Montpellier in 63%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Montpellier away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ PAU vs Montpellier Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in PAU and Montpellier matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of PAU's recent matches and 23% of Montpellier's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are PAU and Montpellier matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of PAU's recent games and 30% of Montpellier's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Montpellier matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of PAU's recent matches and 60% of Montpellier's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at PAU's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU and Montpellier finished level at 0-0 at Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.11 xG and Montpellier 1.43 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. PAU fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Montpellier landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.09 / defence 1.50 against Montpellier attack 0.81 / defence 0.91, drawn from 61/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 29% | Draw 27% | Montpellier 44%, with Montpellier to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 56%, Montpellier 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Montpellier's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.31 PPG, Montpellier 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. PAU (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Montpellier (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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