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Poisson model rates Saint Etienne at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Saint Etienne vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 28 as Saint Etienne welcome Annecy to Stade Geoffroy-Guichard. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Saint Etienne — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint Etienne have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Annecy have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Annecy away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Saint Etienne) versus 1.70 (Annecy). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Saint Etienne, 2 for Annecy and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 0–4 with Annecy winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Saint Etienne in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

Annecy in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 51% versus Annecy 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 56% | Annecy 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.55 xG and Annecy 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 1.223 / defence 0.945 | Annecy attack 1.033 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.133 / away 1.179. Data: 27 Saint Etienne games / 61 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 46% | Draw 27% | Annecy 27%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Annecy 3.70. Saint Etienne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Saint Etienne are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Saint Etienne 50% | Annecy 40%.

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