PAU 2-1 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Guingamp at 43% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAU vs Guingamp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Guingamp travel to Nouste Camp to take on PAU in Ligue 2 (matchday 31). The game is scheduled for Friday 17 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, PAU have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
PAU's form when playing at home: 0W 5D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.40 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Guingamp stand at 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Guingamp's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
PAU carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of PAU's games and 60% of Guingamp's (from PAU's last 10 home games and Guingamp's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Despite the home advantage, Guingamp have the better record in our head-to-head data — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches against 2 for PAU.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 8 Nov 2025, ended PAU 2–2 Guingamp — a draw.
The H2H data backs the away side. Guingamp have won 5 of 8 H2H matches, and at 3.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
PAU in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 52% versus Guingamp 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 55% | Guingamp 59%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: PAU surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Guingamp have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.22 xG and Guingamp 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 0.971 / defence 1.338 | Guingamp attack 1.010 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.180 / away 1.143. PAU's defence rating of 1.338 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Guingamp's projected output up. Data: built from PAU's last 64 games and Guingamp's last 64.
Result probabilities: PAU 28% | Draw 29% | Guingamp 43%. Fair-value odds: PAU 3.56 | Draw 3.46 | Guingamp 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record in our data (5 wins to 2), but PAU carry stronger current form — do not let the head-to-head record alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 43% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Guingamp 5 wins from 8 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Note a divergence: in-form PAU (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (PAU's last 10 home games and Guingamp's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: PAU 70% (last 10 home games) | Guingamp 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 31 | Venue: Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Friday 17 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 28% | Draw 29% | Guingamp 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG PAU 1.22 / Guingamp 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 0.971 / def 1.338 | Guingamp attack 1.010 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.180 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Guingamp xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ PAU vs Guingamp FAQs
What time does PAU vs Guingamp kick off?
PAU vs Guingamp kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 17 April 2026 at Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Guingamp?
PAU 2 - 1 Guingamp.
Where is PAU vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Guingamp part of?
PAU vs Guingamp is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 31) (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 28% chance of winning, Guingamp a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both PAU and Guingamp will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will PAU vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
PAU's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Guingamp's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus PAU's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from PAU's last 64 games and Guingamp's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
28%
3.56
29%
3.46
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
PAU xG
Total xG
2.76
1.54
Guingamp xG
3.56
28%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
21%
4.69
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
6%
16.68
13%
7.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.8 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.9 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ PAU vs Guingamp Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are PAU and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for PAU and 1.54 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 64 outings, PAU have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 21W 21D 22L record — D-W-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Guingamp's form line: 26W 14D 24L from 64 games, 1.44 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAU on 1.31 PPG, Guingamp on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, PAU have posted 1.44 PPG from their last 32 home games (12W 10D 10L).
On the road, Guingamp have gone 12W 6D 14L from their last 32 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
PAU are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.44 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Current Season
Guingamp
Current Season
PAU (Home) vs Guingamp (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
PAU
Current Season
Guingamp
Current Season
❓ PAU vs Guingamp Form FAQs
What form are PAU and Guingamp in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 21W 21D 22L in their last 64 games (1.31 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 26W 14D 24L in their last 64 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Guingamp away?
PAU's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.44 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was as recently as 16 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
PAU have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 30 Jul 2022, when Guingamp won Guingamp 4-0 PAU.
PAU's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
PAU
1
Draws
5
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ PAU vs Guingamp H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Guingamp?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, PAU have won 4, Guingamp have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did PAU and Guingamp last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 October 2026: Guingamp 1-2 PAU.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 47%, Guingamp 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (PAU) and 59% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ PAU vs Guingamp Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in PAU and Guingamp matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of PAU's recent matches and 59% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are PAU and Guingamp matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of PAU's recent games and 59% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Guingamp matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of PAU's recent matches and 72% of Guingamp's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as PAU defy the odds to beat Guingamp 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU beat Guingamp 2-1 at Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.22 xG and Guingamp 1.54 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 0.97 / defence 1.34 against Guingamp attack 1.01 / defence 1.06, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 28% | Draw 29% | Guingamp 43%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual PAU win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 55%, Guingamp 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Guingamp's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.31 PPG, Guingamp 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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