PAU 0-1 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Toulouse at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAU vs Toulouse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
PAU host Toulouse at Stade Nouste Camp in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
PAU — All Games: 1W 0D 1L from 2 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. PAU have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Toulouse stand at 1W 1D 0L from 2 Ligue 2 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Toulouse have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Toulouse's 2.00 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of PAU's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.01 xG and Toulouse 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 1.112 / defence 1.113 | Toulouse attack 1.168 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 0.900 / away 1.341. Data: 2 PAU games / 2 Toulouse games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: PAU 19% | Draw 30% | Toulouse 51%. Fair-value odds: PAU 5.26 | Draw 3.33 | Toulouse 1.96. Toulouse hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Toulouse are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Toulouse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 19% | Draw 30% | Toulouse 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG PAU 1.01 / Toulouse 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 1.112 / def 1.113 | Toulouse attack 1.168 / def 1.012 | league avg home 0.900 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Toulouse xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Toulouse kick off?
PAU vs Toulouse kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 7 August 2021 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Toulouse?
PAU 0 - 1 Toulouse.
Where is PAU vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Toulouse part of?
PAU vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 19% chance of winning, Toulouse a 51% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both PAU and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Toulouse?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PAU and Toulouse in?
PAU (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L. Toulouse (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from PAU's attack rating (1.11) and Toulouse's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Toulouse's attack versus PAU's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
19%
5.40
30%
3.29
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
PAU xG
Total xG
2.75
1.74
Toulouse xG
5.40
19%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
18%
5.71
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
3%
30.82
19%
5.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are PAU and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for PAU and 1.74 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
PAU's recent record stands at 1W 0D 1L from 2 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for PAU, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Toulouse, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 0L across 2 games — 2.00 PPG, with D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Toulouse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Toulouse by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over PAU heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
PAU are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 3.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Toulouse's attacking output running into PAU's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Toulouse in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Early Season
Toulouse
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Toulouse in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have PAU or Toulouse been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAU have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Toulouse in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
PAU
1
Draws
1
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Toulouse?
From 2 meetings on record, PAU have won 0, Toulouse have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 15 January 2022, when Toulouse 1-1 PAU.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Toulouse?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Toulouse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of PAU's recent matches and 50% of Toulouse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of PAU's matches and 100% of Toulouse's.
Do PAU and Toulouse tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Toulouse edge out PAU 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat PAU 0-1 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.01 xG and Toulouse 1.74 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. PAU fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.11 / defence 1.11 against Toulouse attack 1.17 / defence 1.01, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it PAU 19% | Draw 30% | Toulouse 51%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 50%, Toulouse 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Toulouse arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. Form held, and they took the win. PAU managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Toulouse managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.