Nimes 0-0 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nimes at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Nimes face Bastia.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Nimes welcome Bastia to Stade des Costières in Ligue 2 (matchday 8). Kick-off is Saturday 10 September 2022 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Nimes — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Nimes's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Bastia have recorded 4W 0D 6L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Bastia have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Nimes) versus 1.20 (Bastia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Nimes, 1 for Bastia and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 May 2022, ended Nimes 0–2 Bastia — a Bastia win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Nimes trading profile (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Bastia trading profile (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nimes 51% versus Bastia 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nimes 53% | Bastia 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nimes 1.53 xG and Bastia 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nimes attack 0.853 / defence 0.889 | Bastia attack 1.075 / defence 1.426. League average goals — home 1.257 / away 1.150. Bastia's defence rating of 1.426 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Nimes's projected output up. Data: built from Nimes's last 45 games and Bastia's last 45.
Result probabilities: Nimes 47% | Draw 26% | Bastia 27%. Fair-value odds: Nimes 2.13 | Draw 3.83 | Bastia 3.71. Nimes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nimes at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nimes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Nimes 50% (last 10 home games) | Bastia 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nimes vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 8 | Venue: Stade des Costières • Kick-off: Saturday 10 September 2022 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nimes 47% | Draw 26% | Bastia 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Nimes 1.53 / Bastia 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Nimes attack 0.853 / def 0.889 | Bastia attack 1.075 / def 1.426 | league avg home 1.257 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Nimes (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Nimes xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Bastia xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Nimes vs Bastia FAQs
What time does Nimes vs Bastia kick off?
Nimes vs Bastia kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 10 September 2022 at Stade des Costières.
What was the final score in Nimes vs Bastia?
Nimes 0 - 0 Bastia.
Where is Nimes vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Costières.
What competition is Nimes vs Bastia part of?
Nimes vs Bastia is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 8) (France).
Who is favourite to win Nimes vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Nimes a 47% chance of winning, Bastia a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Nimes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nimes vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Nimes and Bastia will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Nimes vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Nimes's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Bastia's defensive record (1.43x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Bastia's attack versus Nimes's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Nimes's last 45 games and Bastia's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nimes Win
47%
2.13
26%
3.83
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Nimes xG
Total xG
2.63
1.10
Bastia xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
16%
6.40
6%
17.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.1 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Nimes vs Bastia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Nimes vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Nimes and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Nimes and 1.10 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Nimes vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nimes's recent record stands at 16W 8D 21L from 45 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five.
Bastia, meanwhile, have gone 13W 16D 16L across 45 games — 1.22 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nimes on 1.24 PPG, Bastia on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Nimes have managed 8W 4D 10L from their last 22 home games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bastia's away record stands at 6W 4D 12L across their last 22 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Nimes are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.04 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nimes
Early Season
Bastia
Early Season
Nimes (Home) vs Bastia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Nimes
Early Season
Bastia
Early Season
❓ Nimes vs Bastia Form FAQs
What form are Nimes and Bastia in coming into this match?
Nimes have gone 16W 8D 21L in their last 45 games (1.24 PPG), while Bastia have gone 13W 16D 16L in their last 45 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nimes at home or Bastia away?
Nimes's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nimes at home: 1.27 PPG; Bastia away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Nimes or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nimes have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Bastia in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 4 March 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Nimes's record when hosting Bastia specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Nimes
2
Draws
2
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Nimes vs Bastia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Nimes and Bastia?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Nimes have won 0, Bastia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nimes and Bastia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 March 2023: Bastia 4-2 Nimes.
Who has won more matches between Nimes and Bastia?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nimes see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nimes 54%, Bastia 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Nimes) and 50% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: Nimes have failed to score in 36% of games; Bastia in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nimes home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Nimes vs Bastia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Nimes and Bastia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Nimes's recent matches and 54% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Nimes and Bastia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Nimes's recent games and 50% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nimes and Bastia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Nimes's recent matches and 64% of Bastia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Nimes's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nimes and Bastia finished level at 0-0 at Stade des Costières, Regular Season - 8, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nimes 1.53 xG and Bastia 1.10 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Nimes fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Bastia landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nimes attack 0.85 / defence 0.89 against Bastia attack 1.07 / defence 1.43, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nimes 47% | Draw 26% | Bastia 27%, with Nimes to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nimes 53%, Bastia 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nimes's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bastia's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nimes 1.24 PPG, Bastia 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nimes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Bastia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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