Saint Etienne 2-0 Bordeaux – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bordeaux at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Saint Etienne vs Bordeaux encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 8 as Saint Etienne welcome Bordeaux to Stade Geoffroy-Guichard. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 September 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Saint Etienne — All Games: 1W 7D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Saint Etienne have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Saint Etienne have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bordeaux stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Bordeaux have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bordeaux's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bordeaux — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Saint Etienne register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Bordeaux in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Saint Etienne, 1 for Bordeaux and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Saint Etienne in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Bordeaux in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Saint Etienne 69% and Bordeaux 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 60% | Bordeaux 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.14 xG and Bordeaux 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 1.106 / defence 1.361 | Bordeaux attack 1.117 / defence 0.826. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.171. Data: 7 Saint Etienne games / 7 Bordeaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 24% | Draw 24% | Bordeaux 52%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 4.17 | Draw 4.17 | Bordeaux 1.92. Bordeaux hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bordeaux at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bordeaux offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Saint Etienne 70% | Bordeaux 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Bordeaux | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Sep 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 24% | Draw 24% | Bordeaux 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Saint Etienne 1.14 / Bordeaux 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 1.106 / def 1.361 | Bordeaux attack 1.117 / def 0.826 | league avg home 1.247 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Bordeaux (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Bordeaux xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Bordeaux kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Bordeaux kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 10 September 2022 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Bordeaux?
Saint Etienne 2 - 0 Bordeaux.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Bordeaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Bordeaux part of?
Saint Etienne vs Bordeaux is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Bordeaux?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 24% chance of winning, Bordeaux a 52% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bordeaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Bordeaux?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Saint Etienne and Bordeaux will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Bordeaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Bordeaux?
Record (2 meetings): Saint Etienne 0W | Draws 1 | Bordeaux 1W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Bordeaux in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Bordeaux (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Saint Etienne's attack rating (1.11) and Bordeaux's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bordeaux's attack versus Saint Etienne's defence, projects 1.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bordeaux Win
24%
4.17
24%
4.17
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.92
1.78
Bordeaux xG
4.17
24%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
17%
5.93
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
4%
24.74
17%
6.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 9.6 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Bordeaux?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Bordeaux expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.78 for Bordeaux, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Bordeaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Saint Etienne's recent record stands at 8W 15D 22L from 45 games, a 0.87 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Saint Etienne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bordeaux, meanwhile, have gone 10W 15D 20L across 45 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-D-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Bordeaux, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Saint Etienne on 0.87 PPG, Bordeaux on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Saint Etienne have managed 5W 7D 10L from 22 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bordeaux's away record stands at 5W 7D 10L across 22 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.02 conceded per game recently; Bordeaux are on 1.40 scored and 2.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Saint Etienne have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Bordeaux in 60%.
Last 45 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Early Season
Bordeaux
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Bordeaux in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 8W 15D 22L in their last 45 games (0.87 PPG), while Bordeaux have gone 10W 15D 20L in their last 45 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Bordeaux away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.00 PPG; Bordeaux away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Saint Etienne's record when hosting Bordeaux specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Saint Etienne
3
Draws
1
Bordeaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Bordeaux?
From 6 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 2, Bordeaux have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Bordeaux last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when Saint Etienne 2-1 Bordeaux.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Bordeaux?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Saint Etienne at 73%, Bordeaux at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Saint Etienne and 82% for Bordeaux. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bordeaux in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Bordeaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Bordeaux?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Saint Etienne's games and 64% of Bordeaux's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Saint Etienne vs Bordeaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Saint Etienne's matches and 82% of Bordeaux's.
Do Saint Etienne and Bordeaux tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Bordeaux in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Saint Etienne cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bordeaux.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat Bordeaux 2-0 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 8, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.14 xG and Bordeaux 1.78 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Saint Etienne beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bordeaux landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 1.11 / defence 1.36 against Bordeaux attack 1.12 / defence 0.83, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 24% | Draw 24% | Bordeaux 52%, with Bordeaux to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Saint Etienne win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 60%, Bordeaux 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Bordeaux's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 0.87 PPG, Bordeaux 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line. Bordeaux (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.