Sochaux 3-1 Nimes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sochaux at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sochaux vs Nimes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sochaux host Nimes at Stade Auguste-Bonal in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 September 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sochaux — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Sochaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sochaux at Stade Auguste-Bonal this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Nimes have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Nimes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nimes's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Sochaux are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 2 data — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Sochaux, 1 for Nimes and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2022, ended 3–1 with Sochaux winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sochaux trading profile (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Nimes trading profile (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sochaux 44% versus Nimes 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sochaux 37% | Nimes 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sochaux 1.90 xG and Nimes 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sochaux attack 1.170 / defence 0.789 | Nimes attack 1.076 / defence 1.298. League average goals — home 1.249 / away 1.180. Nimes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.298 — this is suppressing Sochaux's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Sochaux's defence rating of 0.789 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Sochaux games / 46 Nimes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sochaux 58% | Draw 23% | Nimes 19%. Fair-value odds: Sochaux 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Nimes 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Sochaux (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sochaux at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Sochaux 40% | Nimes 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sochaux vs Nimes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Bonal • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sochaux 58% | Draw 23% | Nimes 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 54% | xG Sochaux 1.90 / Nimes 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Sochaux attack 1.170 / def 0.789 | Nimes attack 1.076 / def 1.298 | league avg home 1.249 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Sochaux (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Sochaux xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Nimes xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sochaux vs Nimes kick off?
Sochaux vs Nimes kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What was the final score in Sochaux vs Nimes?
Sochaux 3 - 1 Nimes.
Where is Sochaux vs Nimes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What competition is Sochaux vs Nimes part of?
Sochaux vs Nimes is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Sochaux vs Nimes?
Our statistical model gives Sochaux a 58% chance of winning, Nimes a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sochaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sochaux vs Nimes?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Sochaux and Nimes will score (BTTS).
Will Sochaux vs Nimes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Nimes?
Record (2 meetings): Sochaux 1W | Draws 0 | Nimes 1W.
What form are Sochaux and Nimes in?
Sochaux (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Nimes (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sochaux's attack at 1.17x the league average against Nimes's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nimes's attack versus Sochaux's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sochaux Win
58%
1.72
23%
4.41
19%
5.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Sochaux xG
Total xG
2.90
1.00
Nimes xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
5.18
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
15%
6.67
Win to Nil
21%
4.69
3%
34.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.4 | 10.5 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sochaux vs Nimes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Sochaux and Nimes expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Sochaux and 1.00 for Nimes, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Sochaux vs Nimes?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, Sochaux have picked up 1.85 PPG on a 24W 13D 9L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sochaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nimes's form line: 16W 9D 21L from 46 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-D. The sample for Nimes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sochaux are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nimes.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sochaux have posted 1.95 PPG from 22 outings (12W 7D 3L).
On the road, Nimes have gone 8W 3D 11L from 22 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sochaux come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sochaux are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Nimes are on 1.13 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sochaux
Blended
Nimes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sochaux and Nimes in coming into this match?
Sochaux have gone 24W 13D 9L in their last 46 games (1.85 PPG), while Nimes have gone 16W 9D 21L in their last 46 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sochaux at home or Nimes away?
Sochaux's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sochaux at home: 1.95 PPG; Nimes away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Sochaux or Nimes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Nimes in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sochaux and Nimes runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 June 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sochaux's record when hosting Nimes specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Sochaux
0
Draws
2
Nimes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Nimes?
From 4 meetings on record, Sochaux have won 2, Nimes have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sochaux and Nimes last play each other?
They last met on 2 June 2023, when Nimes 3-1 Sochaux.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sochaux see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Nimes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sochaux 41%, Nimes 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Sochaux) and 59% (Nimes).
On the defensive side: Sochaux keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Nimes in 32%; Nimes in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sochaux home games / Nimes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sochaux play Nimes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Sochaux's recent matches and 46% of Nimes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sochaux vs Nimes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Sochaux's recent games and 59% of Nimes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sochaux and Nimes tend to score early?
Sochaux have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Nimes in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sochaux cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Nimes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sochaux beat Nimes 3-1 at Stade Auguste-Bonal, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sochaux 1.90 xG and Nimes 1.00 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sochaux beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sochaux attack 1.17 / defence 0.79 against Nimes attack 1.08 / defence 1.30, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sochaux 58% | Draw 23% | Nimes 19%, with Sochaux to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sochaux 37%, Nimes 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sochaux's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Nimes's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sochaux arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.24. That form edge translated into the three points. Sochaux (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm. Nimes (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.