Dijon 0-2 Sochaux – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sochaux at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dijon vs Sochaux fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Gaston-Gérard plays host to Dijon versus Sochaux in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Saturday 10 September 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Dijon's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Dijon have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dijon's home record at Stade Gaston-Gérard: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Sochaux have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Sochaux have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sochaux's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Dijon, 1 for Sochaux and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Dijon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Sochaux goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dijon 53% versus Sochaux 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dijon 53% | Sochaux 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 1.05 xG and Sochaux 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 1.019 / defence 1.170 | Sochaux attack 1.186 / defence 0.822. League average goals — home 1.257 / away 1.150. Data: 45 Dijon games / 45 Sochaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dijon 25% | Draw 26% | Sochaux 50%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 4.00 | Draw 3.85 | Sochaux 2.00. Sochaux hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sochaux at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sochaux if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Dijon 50% | Sochaux 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dijon vs Sochaux | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stade Gaston-Gérard • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Sep 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dijon 25% | Draw 26% | Sochaux 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Dijon 1.05 / Sochaux 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Dijon attack 1.019 / def 1.170 | Sochaux attack 1.186 / def 0.822 | league avg home 1.257 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Sochaux (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Dijon xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Sochaux xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dijon vs Sochaux kick off?
Dijon vs Sochaux kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 10 September 2022 at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What was the final score in Dijon vs Sochaux?
Dijon 0 - 2 Sochaux.
Where is Dijon vs Sochaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What competition is Dijon vs Sochaux part of?
Dijon vs Sochaux is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dijon vs Sochaux?
Our statistical model gives Dijon a 25% chance of winning, Sochaux a 50% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sochaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs Sochaux?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Dijon and Sochaux will score (BTTS).
Will Dijon vs Sochaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Sochaux?
Record (2 meetings): Dijon 0W | Draws 1 | Sochaux 1W.
What form are Dijon and Sochaux in?
Dijon (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Sochaux (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Dijon's attack at 1.02x the league average against Sochaux's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sochaux's attack (1.19x) against Dijon's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.8%), 1-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sochaux Win
25%
4.04
26%
3.91
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Dijon xG
Total xG
2.65
1.59
Sochaux xG
4.04
25%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
20%
4.93
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
5%
19.92
17%
5.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 11.3 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dijon vs Sochaux?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Dijon and Sochaux expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Dijon and 1.59 for Sochaux, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Dijon vs Sochaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dijon come into this having played 45 games, going 16W 10D 19L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Dijon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sochaux sit at 1.82 PPG from 45 outings (23W 13D 9L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sochaux, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sochaux carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Dijon — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Dijon's home form reads 10W 4D 9L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Sochaux have taken 1.70 points per game from 23 outings (11W 6D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
Dijon are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Sochaux are on 1.29 scored and 0.80 conceded.
Defensively: Sochaux in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dijon
Early Season
Sochaux
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dijon and Sochaux in coming into this match?
Dijon have gone 16W 10D 19L in their last 45 games (1.29 PPG), while Sochaux have gone 23W 13D 9L in their last 45 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dijon at home or Sochaux away?
Sochaux's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dijon at home: 1.48 PPG; Sochaux away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Dijon or Sochaux been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dijon have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Sochaux in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dijon have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sochaux — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Dijon
1
Draws
2
Sochaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Sochaux?
From 4 meetings on record, Dijon have won 1, Sochaux have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dijon and Sochaux last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2023, when Sochaux 0-2 Dijon.
Who has won more matches between Dijon and Sochaux?
Sochaux have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dijon see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Sochaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dijon 52%, Sochaux 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Dijon) and 48% (Sochaux).
On the defensive side: Sochaux in 39%; Sochaux in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dijon home games / Sochaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dijon play Sochaux?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Dijon's recent matches and 48% of Sochaux's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dijon vs Sochaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Dijon's recent games and 48% of Sochaux's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dijon and Sochaux tend to score early?
Dijon have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Sochaux in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sochaux cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Dijon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sochaux beat Dijon 0-2 at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Regular Season - 8, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dijon 1.05 xG and Sochaux 1.59 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Dijon fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dijon attack 1.02 / defence 1.17 against Sochaux attack 1.19 / defence 0.82, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dijon 25% | Draw 26% | Sochaux 50%, with Sochaux to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dijon 53%, Sochaux 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dijon's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sochaux's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sochaux arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dijon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward. Sochaux (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.