Annecy 1-0 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 34%, yet in-form Quevilly provide a compelling counter-argument — this Annecy vs Quevilly fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 8 as Annecy welcome Quevilly to Parc des Sports. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 September 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Annecy have gone 1W 3D 3L from 7 outings — a 0.86 PPG return. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 0.71 goals per game and conceding 0.86 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 7 games (43%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Annecy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Annecy at Parc des Sports this season: 0W 1D 2L from 3 home games — 0.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.33 lags behind their overall 0.86 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Parc des Sports this season.
Quevilly — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Quevilly have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Quevilly have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Quevilly — 0.74 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.86). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Annecy trading profile (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 57% of games.
Quevilly trading profile (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 29% versus Quevilly 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 29% | Quevilly 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 0.94 xG and Quevilly 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.603 / defence 1.099 | Quevilly attack 0.725 / defence 1.240. League average goals — home 1.257 / away 1.150. Annecy's attack strength of 0.603 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Quevilly bring a strong defensive rating of 1.240 — this is suppressing Annecy's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Annecy games / 45 Quevilly games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 34% | Draw 33% | Quevilly 33%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.94 | Draw 3.03 | Quevilly 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 34% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Quevilly (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.86 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 33% | Quevilly 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Sep 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 34% | Draw 33% | Quevilly 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 37% | xG Annecy 0.94 / Quevilly 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.603 / def 1.099 | Quevilly attack 0.725 / def 1.240 | league avg home 1.257 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Annecy (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Quevilly xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Quevilly kick off?
Annecy vs Quevilly kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 10 September 2022 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Quevilly?
Annecy 1 - 0 Quevilly.
Where is Annecy vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Quevilly part of?
Annecy vs Quevilly is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 34% chance of winning, Quevilly a 33% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Annecy and Quevilly will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Quevilly?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Annecy and Quevilly in?
Annecy (all comps): 1W-3D-3L in 7 | 0.86 PPG | GF 0.71 / GA 0.86 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. Quevilly (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Annecy's attacking strength (0.60x league average) is weighed against Quevilly's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. The same calculation in reverse, Quevilly's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
34%
2.93
33%
3.03
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Annecy xG
Total xG
1.86
0.92
Quevilly xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.71
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
14%
7.33
13%
7.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.6 | 14.3 | 6.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.5 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are Annecy and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Annecy and 0.92 for Quevilly, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Quevilly?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Annecy come into this having played 7 games, going 1W 3D 3L for 0.86 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Annecy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Quevilly sit at 1.00 PPG from 7 outings (1W 4D 2L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Quevilly, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Annecy on 0.86 PPG, Quevilly on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Annecy's home form reads 0W 1D 2L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.33 PPG return. That actually lags their 0.86 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Quevilly have taken 0.33 points per game from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Quevilly's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Annecy are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 1.14 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Annecy have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Early Season
Quevilly
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Quevilly in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 1W 3D 3L in their last 7 games (0.86 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 1W 4D 2L in their last 7 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Quevilly away?
Annecy's home record (0.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 0.33 PPG; Quevilly away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Annecy or Quevilly been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Quevilly in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Annecy's record when hosting Quevilly specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Annecy
2
Draws
0
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Quevilly?
From 4 meetings on record, Annecy have won 2, Quevilly have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Quevilly last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2024, when Annecy 0-0 Quevilly.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Quevilly?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Annecy 33% BTTS, Quevilly 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Annecy) and 67% (Quevilly).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Quevilly in 33%; Annecy have failed to score in 67% of games; Quevilly in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Quevilly?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Annecy's recent matches and 33% of Quevilly's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Quevilly usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Annecy's recent games and 67% of Quevilly's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Quevilly tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Quevilly in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Annecy edge out Quevilly 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Quevilly 1-0 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 8, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 0.94 xG and Quevilly 0.92 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Quevilly landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.60 / defence 1.10 against Quevilly attack 0.72 / defence 1.24, drawn from 7/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 34% | Draw 33% | Quevilly 33%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 34%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 29%, Quevilly 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Quevilly's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 0.86 PPG, Quevilly 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Quevilly (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.