📋

Poisson rates Rodez at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rodez vs Nantes encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Stade Paul-Lignon plays host to Rodez versus Nantes in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Friday 5 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Rodez have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Rodez haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Rodez have posted 6W 4D 0L at Stade Paul-Lignon — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Nantes (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Nantes haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Nantes's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

The points-per-game gap of 1.60 in Rodez's favour (2.20 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Current Standings

Rodez are 5th in Ligue 2 with 58 points from 34 games.

Rodez: Promotion Playoffs.

Trading

Rodez half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Nantes half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 73% versus Nantes 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 52% | Nantes 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.67 xG and Nantes 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.059 / defence 0.940 | Nantes attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.258. Data: 34 Rodez games / 0 Nantes games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Rodez 51% | Draw 27% | Nantes 21%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Nantes 4.76. Rodez hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Rodez at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rodez if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 80% | Nantes 40% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights