Boulogne vs Saint Etienne – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Boulogne vs Saint Etienne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
plays host to Boulogne versus Saint Etienne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Friday 19 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Boulogne (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Boulogne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Boulogne's home record at : 1W 5D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Saint Etienne have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Saint Etienne's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Saint Etienne are 1.30 PPG clear of Boulogne in recent Ligue 2 fixtures (2.20 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Boulogne have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Saint Etienne in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Boulogne lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2026, ended 1–0 with Boulogne winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Boulogne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Saint Etienne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Boulogne 49% versus Saint Etienne 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Boulogne 40% | Saint Etienne 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Boulogne 1.02 xG and Saint Etienne 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boulogne attack 0.807 / defence 0.980 | Saint Etienne attack 1.109 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.317. Data: 43 Boulogne games / 43 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Boulogne 26% | Draw 28% | Saint Etienne 46%. Fair-value odds: Boulogne 3.85 | Draw 3.57 | Saint Etienne 2.17. Saint Etienne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Saint Etienne as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Boulogne 60% | Saint Etienne 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Boulogne vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: • Kick-off: Friday 19 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Boulogne 26% | Draw 28% | Saint Etienne 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Boulogne 1.02 / Saint Etienne 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Boulogne attack 0.807 / def 0.980 | Saint Etienne attack 1.109 / def 0.929 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Boulogne xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Saint Etienne xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Boulogne vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Boulogne vs Saint Etienne is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 19 February 2027.
What competition is Boulogne vs Saint Etienne part of?
Boulogne vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Boulogne vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Boulogne a 26% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Boulogne vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Boulogne and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Boulogne vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Boulogne and Saint Etienne?
Record (2 meetings): Boulogne 1W | Draws 0 | Saint Etienne 1W.
What form are Boulogne and Saint Etienne in?
Boulogne (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-L-D-W. Saint Etienne (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Boulogne's attack at 0.81x the league average against Saint Etienne's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Saint Etienne's attack (1.11x) against Boulogne's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
26%
3.79
28%
3.60
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Boulogne xG
Total xG
2.45
1.43
Saint Etienne xG
3.79
26%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
24%
4.18
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
6%
15.85
17%
6.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 12.3 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Boulogne vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Boulogne and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Boulogne and 1.43 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Boulogne vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 43 outings, Boulogne have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 10W 15D 18L record — D-D-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Boulogne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Saint Etienne's form line: 23W 8D 12L from 43 games, 1.79 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-W. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Saint Etienne are the form team by 0.74 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Boulogne.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Boulogne have posted 0.86 PPG from 21 outings (4W 6D 11L).
On the road, Saint Etienne have gone 9W 4D 8L from 21 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Boulogne are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.72 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Saint Etienne in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Boulogne
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Boulogne and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Boulogne have gone 10W 15D 18L in their last 43 games (1.05 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 23W 8D 12L in their last 43 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Boulogne at home or Saint Etienne away?
Saint Etienne's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Boulogne at home: 0.86 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Boulogne or Saint Etienne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Boulogne have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Saint Etienne in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Boulogne
0
Draws
1
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Boulogne and Saint Etienne?
From 2 meetings on record, Boulogne have won 1, Saint Etienne have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Boulogne and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Saint Etienne 0-1 Boulogne.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Boulogne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Boulogne 62%, Saint Etienne 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Boulogne) and 57% (Saint Etienne). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne in 33%; Boulogne have failed to score in 29% of games; Saint Etienne in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Boulogne home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Boulogne play Saint Etienne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Boulogne's recent matches and 48% of Saint Etienne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Boulogne vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Boulogne's matches and 57% of Saint Etienne's.
Do Boulogne and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Boulogne have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.