Nancy 0-0 Grenoble – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Grenoble at 46% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nancy vs Grenoble encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Nancy welcome Grenoble to Stade Marcel Picot in Ligue 2 (matchday 24). Kick-off is Friday 20 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Nancy — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Nancy have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Grenoble stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Grenoble have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Nancy) versus 1.30 (Grenoble). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
Grenoble have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 3 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Nancy. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Dec 2025, ended Nancy 0–1 Grenoble — a Grenoble win.
Grenoble have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Data
Nancy trading profile (last 23 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Grenoble trading profile (last 23 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nancy 44% versus Grenoble 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nancy 52% | Grenoble 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nancy 1.10 xG and Grenoble 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nancy attack 0.785 / defence 1.255 | Grenoble attack 0.976 / defence 1.199. League average goals — home 1.164 / away 1.207. Nancy's attack rating of 0.785 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.10. Nancy's defence rating of 1.255 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Grenoble's projected output up. Data: built from Nancy's last 23 games and Grenoble's last 57.
Result probabilities: Nancy 28% | Draw 26% | Grenoble 46%. Fair-value odds: Nancy 3.56 | Draw 3.85 | Grenoble 2.17. Grenoble hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Grenoble as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Grenoble 3 wins from 3 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Grenoble offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Nancy 30% (last 10 home games) | Grenoble 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nancy vs Grenoble | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 24 | Venue: Stade Marcel Picot • Kick-off: Friday 20 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nancy 28% | Draw 26% | Grenoble 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Nancy 1.10 / Grenoble 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Nancy attack 0.785 / def 1.255 | Grenoble attack 0.976 / def 1.199 | league avg home 1.164 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Grenoble (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Nancy xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Grenoble xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Nancy vs Grenoble FAQs
What time does Nancy vs Grenoble kick off?
Nancy vs Grenoble kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 20 February 2026 at Stade Marcel Picot.
What was the final score in Nancy vs Grenoble?
Nancy 0 - 0 Grenoble.
Where is Nancy vs Grenoble being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel Picot.
What competition is Nancy vs Grenoble part of?
Nancy vs Grenoble is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 24) (France).
Who is favourite to win Nancy vs Grenoble?
Our statistical model gives Nancy a 28% chance of winning, Grenoble a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Grenoble the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nancy vs Grenoble?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Nancy and Grenoble will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Nancy vs Grenoble have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Nancy's attack rating (0.79) and Grenoble's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Grenoble's attack versus Nancy's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Nancy's last 23 games and Grenoble's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grenoble Win
28%
3.56
26%
3.85
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Nancy xG
Total xG
2.58
1.48
Grenoble xG
3.56
28%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
23%
4.39
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
6%
15.64
15%
6.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 11.3 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Nancy vs Grenoble Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Nancy vs Grenoble?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Nancy and Grenoble expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Nancy and 1.48 for Grenoble, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Nancy vs Grenoble?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 23 outings, Nancy have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 7W 4D 12L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Grenoble's form line: 6W 9D 8L from 23 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nancy on 1.09 PPG, Grenoble on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Nancy have posted 1.18 PPG from their last 11 home games (4W 1D 6L).
On the road, Grenoble have gone 2W 3D 6L from their last 11 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Nancy are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Grenoble are on 1.04 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grenoble in 61%.
Last 23 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nancy
Blended
Grenoble
Blended
Nancy (Home) vs Grenoble (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Nancy
Blended
Grenoble
Blended
❓ Nancy vs Grenoble Form FAQs
What form are Nancy and Grenoble in coming into this match?
Nancy have gone 7W 4D 12L in their last 23 games (1.09 PPG), while Grenoble have gone 6W 9D 8L in their last 23 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nancy at home or Grenoble away?
Nancy's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nancy at home: 1.18 PPG; Grenoble away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from September 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 20 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Sep 2021, when Grenoble won Grenoble 4-1 Nancy.
Nancy's record when hosting Grenoble specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Nancy
1
Draws
3
Grenoble
Recent Meetings
❓ Nancy vs Grenoble H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and Grenoble?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Nancy have won 0, Grenoble have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Nancy and Grenoble last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 February 2026: Nancy 0-0 Grenoble.
Who has won more matches between Nancy and Grenoble?
Grenoble have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nancy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Grenoble are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nancy 27%, Grenoble 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Nancy) and 54% (Grenoble).
On the defensive side: Nancy have failed to score in 46% of games; Grenoble in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nancy home games / Grenoble away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Nancy vs Grenoble Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Nancy and Grenoble matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Nancy's recent matches and 73% of Grenoble's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Nancy and Grenoble matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Nancy's recent games and 54% of Grenoble's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nancy and Grenoble matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Nancy's recent matches and 82% of Grenoble's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Nancy's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Marcel Picot, Regular Season - 24, as Nancy and Grenoble drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nancy 1.10 xG and Grenoble 1.48 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Nancy fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Grenoble landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nancy attack 0.79 / defence 1.25 against Grenoble attack 0.98 / defence 1.20, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nancy 28% | Draw 26% | Grenoble 46%, with Grenoble to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nancy 52%, Grenoble 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nancy's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Grenoble's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nancy 1.09 PPG, Grenoble 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nancy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Grenoble (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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