Montpellier 1-2 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Montpellier at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Montpellier vs Clermont Foot encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Montpellier welcome Clermont Foot to Stade de la Mosson in Ligue 2 (matchday 33). Kick-off is Saturday 2 May 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Montpellier have gone 5W 4D 1L — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Montpellier's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Clermont Foot stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Clermont Foot have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Montpellier are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Montpellier, 1 for Clermont Foot and 4 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Oct 2025, ended Montpellier 1–1 Clermont Foot — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Montpellier in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Clermont Foot in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Montpellier 39% versus Clermont Foot 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Montpellier 42% | Clermont Foot 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Montpellier 1.68 xG and Clermont Foot 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Montpellier attack 1.178 / defence 1.030 | Clermont Foot attack 0.946 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.228. Data: built from Montpellier's last 32 games and Clermont Foot's last 66.
Result probabilities: Montpellier 47% | Draw 28% | Clermont Foot 25%. Fair-value odds: Montpellier 2.14 | Draw 3.56 | Clermont Foot 3.96. Montpellier hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Montpellier at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Montpellier offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Montpellier's last 10 home games and Clermont Foot's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Montpellier 50% (last 10 home games) | Clermont Foot 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Montpellier vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 33 | Venue: Stade de la Mosson • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Montpellier 47% | Draw 28% | Clermont Foot 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Montpellier 1.68 / Clermont Foot 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Montpellier attack 1.178 / def 1.030 | Clermont Foot attack 0.946 / def 1.173 | league avg home 1.215 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Montpellier (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Montpellier xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Clermont Foot xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Montpellier vs Clermont Foot FAQs
What time does Montpellier vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Montpellier vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Stade de la Mosson.
What was the final score in Montpellier vs Clermont Foot?
Montpellier 1 - 2 Clermont Foot.
Where is Montpellier vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Mosson.
What competition is Montpellier vs Clermont Foot part of?
Montpellier vs Clermont Foot is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 33) (France).
Who is favourite to win Montpellier vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Montpellier a 47% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Montpellier the favourite.
Will both teams score in Montpellier vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Montpellier and Clermont Foot will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Montpellier vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Montpellier's attack at 1.18x the league average against Clermont Foot's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Clermont Foot's attack versus Montpellier's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Montpellier's last 32 games and Clermont Foot's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Montpellier Win
47%
2.14
28%
3.56
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Montpellier xG
Total xG
2.88
1.20
Clermont Foot xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
14%
7.09
5%
21.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.3 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Montpellier vs Clermont Foot Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Montpellier vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Montpellier and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Montpellier and 1.20 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Montpellier vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 66 outings, Montpellier have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 18W 12D 36L record — D-D-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Clermont Foot's form line: 14W 21D 31L from 66 games, 0.95 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Montpellier on 1.00 PPG, Clermont Foot on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Montpellier have posted 1.24 PPG from their last 33 home games (11W 8D 14L).
On the road, Clermont Foot have gone 7W 8D 18L from their last 33 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Montpellier are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.00 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Montpellier
Current Season
Clermont Foot
Current Season
Montpellier (Home) vs Clermont Foot (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Montpellier
Current Season
Clermont Foot
Current Season
❓ Montpellier vs Clermont Foot Form FAQs
What form are Montpellier and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Montpellier have gone 18W 12D 36L in their last 66 games (1.00 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 14W 21D 31L in their last 66 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Montpellier at home or Clermont Foot away?
Montpellier's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Montpellier at home: 1.24 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. They cover more than one competition — Ligue 1, Ligue 2. The most recent was on 2 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Montpellier's record when hosting Clermont Foot specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Montpellier
4
Draws
2
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Montpellier vs Clermont Foot H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Montpellier and Clermont Foot?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Montpellier have won 2, Clermont Foot have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Montpellier and Clermont Foot last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 May 2026: Montpellier 1-2 Clermont Foot.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Montpellier are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Montpellier 58%, Clermont Foot 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Montpellier) and 48% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Montpellier have failed to score in 30% of games; Clermont Foot in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Montpellier home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Montpellier vs Clermont Foot Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Montpellier and Clermont Foot matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Montpellier's recent matches and 48% of Clermont Foot's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Montpellier and Clermont Foot matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Montpellier's recent games and 48% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Montpellier and Clermont Foot matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Montpellier's recent matches and 64% of Clermont Foot's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Clermont Foot defy the odds to beat Montpellier 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot beat Montpellier 1-2 at Stade de la Mosson, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Montpellier 1.68 xG and Clermont Foot 1.20 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Clermont Foot outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Montpellier attack 1.18 / defence 1.03 against Clermont Foot attack 0.95 / defence 1.17, drawn from 32/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Montpellier 47% | Draw 28% | Clermont Foot 25%, with Montpellier to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Clermont Foot win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Montpellier 42%, Clermont Foot 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Montpellier's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Montpellier 1.00 PPG, Clermont Foot 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Clermont Foot win broke the near-deadlock. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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