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Poisson model rates Annecy at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Boulogne vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Annecy travel to Stade de la Libération to take on Boulogne. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 May 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Boulogne — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Boulogne's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Stade de la Libération this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Annecy have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Annecy away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Boulogne at 1.30 PPG versus Annecy's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Boulogne, 0 for Annecy and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Boulogne in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Annecy in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Boulogne 50% versus Annecy 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Boulogne 47% | Annecy 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Boulogne 1.30 xG and Annecy 2.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boulogne attack 0.888 / defence 1.460 | Annecy attack 1.174 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.228. Annecy bring a strong defensive rating of 1.210 — this is suppressing Boulogne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Boulogne games / 66 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Boulogne 22% | Draw 24% | Annecy 54%. Fair-value odds: Boulogne 4.55 | Draw 4.17 | Annecy 1.85. Annecy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 2.10) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 3.41 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates are neutral: Boulogne 60% | Annecy 40%.

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