Quevilly 2-0 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Quevilly at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Quevilly vs Guingamp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 22 as Quevilly welcome Guingamp to Stade Robert Diochon. Kick-off is set for Friday 3 February 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Quevilly stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Quevilly's home record at Stade Robert Diochon: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Guingamp have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Quevilly are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 2 data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Quevilly register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Guingamp in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Quevilly, 0 for Guingamp and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Dec 2022, ended 2–0 with Quevilly winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Quevilly trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Guingamp trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 41% versus Guingamp 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Quevilly 42% | Guingamp 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 1.34 xG and Guingamp 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 1.265 / defence 1.039 | Guingamp attack 1.095 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.172 / away 1.054. Quevilly carry an above-average attack strength of 1.265 — their λ of 1.34 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 59 Quevilly games / 59 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Quevilly 40% | Draw 27% | Guingamp 33%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Guingamp 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Quevilly as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Quevilly offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Quevilly 70% | Guingamp 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Friday 3 Feb 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 40% | Draw 27% | Guingamp 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Quevilly 1.34 / Guingamp 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 1.265 / def 1.039 | Guingamp attack 1.095 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.172 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Quevilly (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Guingamp xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Quevilly vs Guingamp kick off?
Quevilly vs Guingamp kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 3 February 2023 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Guingamp?
Quevilly 2 - 0 Guingamp.
Where is Quevilly vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs Guingamp part of?
Quevilly vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 40% chance of winning, Guingamp a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Quevilly the favourite.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Quevilly and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Quevilly vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Guingamp?
Record (3 meetings): Quevilly 1W | Draws 2 | Guingamp 0W.
What form are Quevilly and Guingamp in?
Quevilly (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Guingamp (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Quevilly's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Guingamp's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Quevilly's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Quevilly Win
40%
2.49
27%
3.75
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Quevilly xG
Total xG
2.54
1.20
Guingamp xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
12%
8.27
9%
11.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.7 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Quevilly and 1.20 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, Quevilly have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 18W 16D 25L record — W-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guingamp's form line: 22W 19D 18L from 59 games, 1.44 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-L. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Quevilly on 1.19 PPG, Guingamp on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Quevilly have posted 1.31 PPG from 29 outings (9W 11D 9L).
On the road, Guingamp have gone 11W 10D 8L from 29 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Quevilly are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.32 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Quevilly and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 18W 16D 25L in their last 59 games (1.19 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 22W 19D 18L in their last 59 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Quevilly at home or Guingamp away?
Guingamp's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Quevilly at home: 1.31 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Quevilly's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Quevilly
3
Draws
1
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Guingamp?
From 6 meetings on record, Quevilly have won 2, Guingamp have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 13 January 2024, when Quevilly 0-1 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Quevilly and Guingamp?
Quevilly have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Quevilly 52%, Guingamp 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Quevilly) and 41% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Quevilly have failed to score in 34% of games; Guingamp in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Quevilly play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Quevilly's recent matches and 52% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Quevilly vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Quevilly's recent games and 41% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Quevilly and Guingamp tend to score early?
Quevilly have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Quevilly cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Guingamp.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Quevilly beat Guingamp 2-0 at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 1.34 xG and Guingamp 1.20 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Guingamp landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 1.26 / defence 1.04 against Guingamp attack 1.09 / defence 0.91, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 40% | Draw 27% | Guingamp 33%, with Quevilly to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 42%, Guingamp 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.
Guingamp's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Quevilly 1.19 PPG, Guingamp 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Quevilly win broke the near-deadlock. Quevilly (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.