Sochaux 1-1 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sochaux at 39%, yet in-form Le Havre provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sochaux vs Le Havre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sochaux and Le Havre meet at Stade Auguste-Bonal in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 February 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sochaux have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sochaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Auguste-Bonal, Sochaux have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Sochaux are significantly better at Stade Auguste-Bonal than their overall form suggests.
Le Havre's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Le Havre's away record: 6W 4D 0L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Le Havre arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Sochaux, 2 for Le Havre and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Jan 2023, ended 0–1 with Le Havre winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Sochaux half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Le Havre half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sochaux 48% versus Le Havre 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sochaux 45% | Le Havre 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sochaux 1.13 xG and Le Havre 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sochaux attack 1.299 / defence 0.917 | Le Havre attack 1.028 / defence 0.747. League average goals — home 1.169 / away 1.061. Sochaux carry an above-average attack strength of 1.299 — their λ of 1.13 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Le Havre's defence strength of 0.747 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 60 Sochaux games / 60 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sochaux 39% | Draw 30% | Le Havre 32%. Fair-value odds: Sochaux 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Le Havre 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sochaux as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Le Havre (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sochaux if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sochaux 50% | Le Havre 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sochaux vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Bonal • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sochaux 39% | Draw 30% | Le Havre 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Sochaux 1.13 / Le Havre 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Sochaux attack 1.299 / def 0.917 | Le Havre attack 1.028 / def 0.747 | league avg home 1.169 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Sochaux (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Sochaux xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Le Havre xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sochaux vs Le Havre kick off?
Sochaux vs Le Havre kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What was the final score in Sochaux vs Le Havre?
Sochaux 1 - 1 Le Havre.
Where is Sochaux vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What competition is Sochaux vs Le Havre part of?
Sochaux vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Sochaux vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Sochaux a 39% chance of winning, Le Havre a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sochaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sochaux vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sochaux and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Sochaux vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Le Havre?
Record (3 meetings): Sochaux 1W | Draws 0 | Le Havre 2W.
What form are Sochaux and Le Havre in?
Sochaux (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Le Havre (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sochaux's attack rating (1.30) and Le Havre's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Le Havre's attack (1.03x) against Sochaux's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sochaux Win
39%
2.59
30%
3.38
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Sochaux xG
Total xG
2.13
1.00
Le Havre xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
10%
9.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sochaux vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Sochaux and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Sochaux and 1.00 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Sochaux vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Sochaux have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 31W 15D 14L record — L-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sochaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Le Havre's form line: 26W 19D 15L from 60 games, 1.62 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-D. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.80 PPG for Sochaux against 1.62 for Le Havre. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sochaux have posted 2.03 PPG from 29 outings (17W 8D 4L).
On the road, Le Havre have gone 12W 10D 7L from 29 away games — 1.59 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sochaux come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sochaux are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.17 scored and 0.83 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Le Havre in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sochaux
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sochaux and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Sochaux have gone 31W 15D 14L in their last 60 games (1.80 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 26W 19D 15L in their last 60 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sochaux at home or Le Havre away?
Sochaux's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sochaux at home: 2.03 PPG; Le Havre away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Sochaux or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Le Havre in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sochaux have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Le Havre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Sochaux
1
Draws
2
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Le Havre?
From 4 meetings on record, Sochaux have won 1, Le Havre have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sochaux and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2023, when Sochaux 1-1 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Sochaux and Le Havre?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sochaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sochaux 45%, Le Havre 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Sochaux) and 38% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Sochaux keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Le Havre in 45%; Le Havre in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sochaux home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sochaux play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Sochaux's recent matches and 41% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sochaux vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Sochaux's recent games and 38% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sochaux and Le Havre tend to score early?
Sochaux have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sochaux and Le Havre share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sochaux and Le Havre finished level at 1-1 at Stade Auguste-Bonal, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sochaux 1.13 xG and Le Havre 1.00 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sochaux attack 1.30 / defence 0.92 against Le Havre attack 1.03 / defence 0.75, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sochaux 39% | Draw 30% | Le Havre 32%, with Sochaux to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sochaux 45%, Le Havre 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sochaux's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Le Havre's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sochaux 1.80 PPG, Le Havre 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.