Le Havre 2-4 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Le Havre take on Bastia.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Océane plays host to Le Havre versus Bastia in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Monday 14 February 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Le Havre (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Le Havre's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Stade Océane this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Océane. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Le Havre are significantly better at Stade Océane than their overall form suggests.
Bastia's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bastia away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Le Havre against 1.40 for Bastia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Le Havre 0W, Bastia 0W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Le Havre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time; they fail to score in 39% of games.
Bastia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 39% versus Bastia 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Le Havre 26% | Bastia 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 0.84 xG and Bastia 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.671 / defence 0.943 | Bastia attack 0.727 / defence 1.271. League average goals — home 0.988 / away 0.990. Le Havre's attack strength of 0.671 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bastia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.271 — this is suppressing Le Havre's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Le Havre games / 23 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 35% | Draw 39% | Bastia 26%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.86 | Draw 2.56 | Bastia 3.85. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.52. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.52 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Bastia's lower xG of 0.68 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 26% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 20% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 29% on No. Form rates corroborate: Le Havre 30% | Bastia 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Monday 14 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 35% | Draw 39% | Bastia 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 20% | BTTS 29% | xG Le Havre 0.84 / Bastia 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.671 / def 0.943 | Bastia attack 0.727 / def 1.271 | league avg home 0.988 / away 0.990 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Bastia xG
29%
BTTS
46%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Bastia kick off?
Le Havre vs Bastia kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 14 February 2022 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Bastia?
Le Havre 2 - 4 Bastia.
Where is Le Havre vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Bastia part of?
Le Havre vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 35% chance of winning, Bastia a 26% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Le Havre and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 20%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Bastia?
Record (1 meetings): Le Havre 0W | Draws 1 | Bastia 0W.
What form are Le Havre and Bastia in?
Le Havre (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-D-D. Bastia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Le Havre's attack at 0.67x the league average against Bastia's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bastia's attack (0.73x) against Le Havre's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.68.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 23.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.8%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 54% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.83
39%
2.56
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.4%
Home win
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Le Havre xG
Total xG
1.52
0.68
Bastia xG
2.83
35%
Home win
2.56
39%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
45%
Over 1.5
2.22
55%
Under 1.5
1.82
20%
Over 2.5
5.00
80%
Under 2.5
1.25
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.40
71%
BTTS No
1.42
Clean Sheet
51%
1.97
43%
2.32
Win to Nil
18%
5.58
11%
9.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.9 | 14.8 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.4 | 12.5 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.5%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Le Havre and 0.68 for Bastia, a combined total of 1.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 23 outings, Le Havre have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 8W 11D 4L record — W-L-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bastia's form line: 5W 10D 8L from 23 games, 1.09 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-D. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Le Havre are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bastia.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Le Havre have posted 1.45 PPG from 11 outings (4W 4D 3L).
On the road, Bastia have gone 2W 1D 8L from 11 away games — 0.64 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bastia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Le Havre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Le Havre are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 0.91 scored and 0.96 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Bastia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Bastia in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 8W 11D 4L in their last 23 games (1.52 PPG), while Bastia have gone 5W 10D 8L in their last 23 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Bastia away?
Le Havre's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.45 PPG; Bastia away: 0.64 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Bastia in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Le Havre won 3-0 on 8 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Le Havre have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Bastia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Le Havre
2
Draws
1
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Bastia?
From 4 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 1, Bastia have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 26 May 2023, when Bastia 1-1 Le Havre.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 36%, Bastia 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 18% for Le Havre and 46% for Bastia.
On the defensive side: Le Havre keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Le Havre have failed to score in 36% of games; Bastia in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Le Havre's recent matches and 46% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 18% of Le Havre's recent games and 46% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Bastia tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Bastia in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bastia cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Le Havre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia beat Le Havre 2-4 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 0.84 xG and Bastia 0.68 xG, a combined 1.52. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Le Havre beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bastia outscored their 0.68 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.67 / defence 0.94 against Bastia attack 0.73 / defence 1.27, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 35% | Draw 39% | Bastia 26%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Bastia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 46% and landed. Over 3.5 was 7% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 28% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 26%, Bastia 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Bastia's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Le Havre arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with Bastia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bastia (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.