Dijon 0-1 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dijon at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dijon vs PAU fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Gaston-Gérard plays host to Dijon versus PAU in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 12 February 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Dijon's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dijon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dijon's home record at Stade Gaston-Gérard: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
PAU (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, PAU have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Dijon 0W, PAU 1W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2021, ended 0–2 with PAU winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Dijon — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
PAU — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dijon 52% versus PAU 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dijon 52% | PAU 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 1.39 xG and PAU 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 1.051 / defence 1.222 | PAU attack 0.791 / defence 1.371. League average goals — home 0.964 / away 0.989. PAU bring a strong defensive rating of 1.371 — this is suppressing Dijon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Dijon games / 23 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dijon 45% | Draw 31% | PAU 24%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 2.22 | Draw 3.23 | PAU 4.17. Dijon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dijon at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dijon if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Dijon 50% | PAU 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dijon vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade Gaston-Gérard • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dijon 45% | Draw 31% | PAU 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Dijon 1.39 / PAU 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Dijon attack 1.051 / def 1.222 | PAU attack 0.791 / def 1.371 | league avg home 0.964 / away 0.989 • Poisson stance: Dijon (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Dijon xG
Expected Goals
0.96
PAU xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dijon vs PAU kick off?
Dijon vs PAU kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What was the final score in Dijon vs PAU?
Dijon 0 - 1 PAU.
Where is Dijon vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What competition is Dijon vs PAU part of?
Dijon vs PAU is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dijon vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Dijon a 45% chance of winning, PAU a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Dijon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Dijon and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Dijon vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and PAU?
Record (1 meetings): Dijon 0W | Draws 0 | PAU 1W.
What form are Dijon and PAU in?
Dijon (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. PAU (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Dijon's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against PAU's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — PAU's attack (0.79x) against Dijon's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dijon Win
45%
2.22
31%
3.22
24%
4.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Dijon xG
Total xG
2.35
0.96
PAU xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
4.17
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
17%
5.78
6%
16.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.7 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dijon vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Dijon and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Dijon and 0.96 for PAU, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Dijon vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 23 outings, Dijon have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 9W 2D 12L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Dijon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAU's form line: 8W 5D 10L from 23 games, 1.26 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-D. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Dijon against 1.26 for PAU. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Dijon have posted 1.55 PPG from 11 outings (5W 2D 4L).
On the road, PAU have gone 1W 4D 6L from 11 away games — 0.64 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.26 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of PAU's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dijon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dijon are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.09 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dijon
Blended
PAU
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dijon and PAU in coming into this match?
Dijon have gone 9W 2D 12L in their last 23 games (1.26 PPG), while PAU have gone 8W 5D 10L in their last 23 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dijon at home or PAU away?
Dijon's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dijon at home: 1.55 PPG; PAU away: 0.64 PPG.
Have Dijon or PAU been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dijon have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, PAU in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dijon have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against PAU — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dijon
1
Draws
3
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and PAU?
From 4 meetings on record, Dijon have won 0, PAU have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dijon and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2023, when Dijon 0-1 PAU.
Who has won more matches between Dijon and PAU?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dijon see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
PAU see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dijon 54%, PAU 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Dijon) and 46% (PAU).
On the defensive side: PAU in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dijon home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dijon play PAU?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Dijon's recent matches and 54% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dijon vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Dijon's recent games and 46% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as PAU defy the odds to beat Dijon 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU beat Dijon 0-1 at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dijon 1.39 xG and PAU 0.96 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dijon fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dijon attack 1.05 / defence 1.22 against PAU attack 0.79 / defence 1.37, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dijon 45% | Draw 31% | PAU 24%, with Dijon to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a PAU win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dijon 52%, PAU 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dijon's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
PAU's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dijon 1.26 PPG, PAU 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock. Dijon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward. PAU (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.