Bastia 0-0 Dijon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bastia at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bastia vs Dijon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dijon make the trip to Stade Armand-Césari to face Bastia in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Saturday 19 February 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bastia have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bastia at Stade Armand-Césari this season: 3W 7D 0L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Armand-Césari. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Dijon's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dijon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Dijon have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Bastia against 1.30 for Dijon. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Bastia, 1 for Dijon and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 1–2 with Dijon winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Bastia half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Dijon half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 46% versus Dijon 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bastia 33% | Dijon 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 1.31 xG and Dijon 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 0.956 / defence 0.895 | Dijon attack 1.038 / defence 1.384. League average goals — home 0.988 / away 1.012. Dijon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.384 — this is suppressing Bastia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Bastia games / 24 Dijon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 44% | Draw 30% | Dijon 26%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Dijon 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bastia as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bastia if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Bastia 30% | Dijon 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Dijon | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 44% | Draw 30% | Dijon 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Bastia 1.31 / Dijon 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 0.956 / def 0.895 | Dijon attack 1.038 / def 1.384 | league avg home 0.988 / away 1.012 • Poisson stance: Bastia (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Dijon xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs Dijon kick off?
Bastia vs Dijon kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Dijon?
Bastia 0 - 0 Dijon.
Where is Bastia vs Dijon being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Dijon part of?
Bastia vs Dijon is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Dijon?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 44% chance of winning, Dijon a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Dijon?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Bastia and Dijon will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs Dijon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Dijon?
Record (1 meetings): Bastia 0W | Draws 0 | Dijon 1W.
What form are Bastia and Dijon in?
Bastia (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Dijon (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bastia's attack at 0.96x the league average against Dijon's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dijon's attack (1.04x) against Bastia's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
44%
2.26
30%
3.37
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Bastia xG
Total xG
2.25
0.94
Dijon xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
17%
5.78
7%
14.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.0 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Dijon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Bastia and Dijon expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Bastia and 0.94 for Dijon, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Dijon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bastia come into this having played 24 games, going 6W 10D 8L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-W. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dijon sit at 1.21 PPG from 24 outings (9W 2D 13L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Dijon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Bastia against 1.21 for Dijon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Bastia's home form reads 3W 8D 0L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Dijon have taken 1.09 points per game from 11 outings (4W 0D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bastia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bastia are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Dijon are on 1.21 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Blended
Dijon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and Dijon in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 6W 10D 8L in their last 24 games (1.17 PPG), while Dijon have gone 9W 2D 13L in their last 24 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Dijon away?
Bastia's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.55 PPG; Dijon away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Bastia or Dijon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Dijon in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bastia have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dijon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Bastia
2
Draws
1
Dijon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Dijon?
From 4 meetings on record, Bastia have won 1, Dijon have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Dijon last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Dijon 1-1 Bastia.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bastia see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 36%, Dijon 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 18% (Bastia) and 54% (Dijon).
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 64% of their matches; Bastia have failed to score in 36% of games; Dijon in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Dijon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play Dijon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Bastia's recent matches and 46% of Dijon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bastia vs Dijon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 18% of Bastia's recent games and 54% of Dijon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Dijon tend to score early?
Bastia have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Dijon in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bastia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia and Dijon finished level at 0-0 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.31 xG and Dijon 0.94 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bastia fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Dijon landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.96 / defence 0.90 against Dijon attack 1.04 / defence 1.38, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 44% | Draw 30% | Dijon 26%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 33%, Dijon 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dijon's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.17 PPG, Dijon 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bastia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward. Dijon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.