Niort 0-0 Le Havre – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Niort at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Niort vs Le Havre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Stade René Gaillard plays host to Niort versus Le Havre in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Saturday 5 February 2022 at 18:00 UTC.

Form

Niort (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Niort, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Niort's home record at Stade René Gaillard: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade René Gaillard. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Le Havre's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Le Havre's form when playing away from home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Niort's favour (1.90 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Niort, 1 for Le Havre and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 1–2 with Le Havre winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Niort half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.

Le Havre half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Niort 33% versus Le Havre 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Niort 48% | Le Havre 29%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Niort 1.40 xG and Le Havre 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Niort attack 1.148 / defence 1.057 | Le Havre attack 1.097 / defence 1.222. League average goals — home 0.997 / away 1.013. Le Havre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.222 — this is suppressing Niort's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Niort games / 22 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Niort 41% | Draw 28% | Le Havre 31%. Fair-value odds: Niort 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Le Havre 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Niort at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Niort if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data: Niort 30% | Le Havre 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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