Dunkerque 2-0 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Dunkerque take on Rodez.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 24 as Dunkerque welcome Rodez to Stade Marcel-Tribut. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 February 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Dunkerque — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dunkerque's home record at Stade Marcel-Tribut: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Rodez have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Rodez have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Rodez's 1.30 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Dunkerque's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Dunkerque's 20% rate and Rodez's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Dunkerque, 0 for Rodez and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Dunkerque in-play and half-time data (23 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 8% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Rodez in-play and half-time data (23 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 48% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Dunkerque 39% | Rodez 26%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dunkerque 30% | Rodez 26%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dunkerque 0.77 xG and Rodez 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dunkerque attack 0.681 / defence 1.069 | Rodez attack 0.764 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 0.964 / away 0.989. Dunkerque's attack strength of 0.681 is below the league average — the 0.77 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 23 Dunkerque games / 23 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dunkerque 29% | Draw 40% | Rodez 31%. Fair-value odds: Dunkerque 3.45 | Draw 2.50 | Rodez 3.23. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.58. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.58 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Dunkerque's lower xG of 0.77 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 21% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 32% on No. Form rates corroborate: Dunkerque 20% | Rodez 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dunkerque vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade Marcel-Tribut • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dunkerque 29% | Draw 40% | Rodez 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% | BTTS 32% | xG Dunkerque 0.77 / Rodez 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Dunkerque attack 0.681 / def 1.069 | Rodez attack 0.764 / def 1.169 | league avg home 0.964 / away 0.989 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Dunkerque xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Rodez xG
32%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dunkerque vs Rodez kick off?
Dunkerque vs Rodez kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What was the final score in Dunkerque vs Rodez?
Dunkerque 2 - 0 Rodez.
Where is Dunkerque vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What competition is Dunkerque vs Rodez part of?
Dunkerque vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dunkerque vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Dunkerque a 29% chance of winning, Rodez a 31% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Dunkerque vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Dunkerque and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Dunkerque vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Rodez?
Record (1 meetings): Dunkerque 0W | Draws 1 | Rodez 0W.
What form are Dunkerque and Rodez in?
Dunkerque (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Rodez (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Dunkerque's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Rodez's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.77. The same calculation in reverse, Rodez's attack versus Dunkerque's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 22.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.44
40%
2.53
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.7%
Away win
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Dunkerque xG
Total xG
1.58
0.81
Rodez xG
3.44
29%
Home win
2.53
40%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
47%
Over 1.5
2.13
53%
Under 1.5
1.89
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.16
68%
BTTS No
1.46
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
46%
2.16
Win to Nil
13%
7.71
15%
6.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.7 | 16.7 | 6.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.9 | 12.8 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dunkerque vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.3%.
How many goals are Dunkerque and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Dunkerque and 0.81 for Rodez, a combined total of 1.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Dunkerque vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dunkerque's recent record stands at 5W 6D 12L from 23 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rodez, meanwhile, have gone 7W 8D 8L across 23 games — 1.26 PPG, with D-L-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dunkerque on 0.91 PPG, Rodez on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Dunkerque have managed 2W 5D 5L from 12 games — 0.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rodez's away record stands at 4W 3D 5L across 12 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Dunkerque are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 0.87 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez in 26%.
Defensively: Rodez in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dunkerque
Blended
Rodez
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dunkerque and Rodez in coming into this match?
Dunkerque have gone 5W 6D 12L in their last 23 games (0.91 PPG), while Rodez have gone 7W 8D 8L in their last 23 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dunkerque at home or Rodez away?
Rodez's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dunkerque at home: 0.92 PPG; Rodez away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Dunkerque or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dunkerque have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Rodez in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dunkerque and Rodez runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Mar 2025, when Rodez won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dunkerque's record when hosting Rodez specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Dunkerque
4
Draws
2
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Rodez?
From 8 meetings on record, Dunkerque have won 2, Rodez have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Dunkerque and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Dunkerque 1-1 Rodez.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dunkerque tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Dunkerque 33% BTTS, Rodez 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 8% for Dunkerque and 33% for Rodez.
On the defensive side: Dunkerque keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Rodez in 33%; Dunkerque have failed to score in 50% of games; Rodez in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dunkerque home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dunkerque play Rodez?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Dunkerque's recent matches and 33% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dunkerque vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 8% of Dunkerque's recent games and 33% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dunkerque and Rodez tend to score early?
Dunkerque have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Rodez in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dunkerque cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Rodez.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dunkerque beat Rodez 2-0 at Stade Marcel-Tribut, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 0.77 xG and Rodez 0.81 xG, a combined 1.58. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Dunkerque beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rodez landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 0.68 / defence 1.07 against Rodez attack 0.76 / defence 1.17, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 29% | Draw 40% | Rodez 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. The actual Dunkerque win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 49% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 28% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 30%, Rodez 26%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dunkerque's trading profile (23 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not.
Rodez's trading profile (23 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dunkerque 0.91 PPG, Rodez 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dunkerque win broke the near-deadlock. Dunkerque (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.58 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.