Laval 0-1 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Laval at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Laval vs Annecy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 22 as Laval welcome Annecy to Stade Francis Le Basser. Kick-off is set for Friday 7 February 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Laval stand at 5W 5D 0L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Laval, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Laval's home record at Stade Francis Le Basser: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Annecy have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Annecy's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Laval are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 2 data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Laval register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Annecy in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Laval, 2 for Annecy and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2024, ended 0–2 with Annecy winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Laval in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Annecy in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Laval 51% versus Annecy 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Laval 42% | Annecy 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Laval 1.28 xG and Annecy 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Laval attack 1.016 / defence 0.940 | Annecy attack 1.013 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.008. Data: 59 Laval games / 59 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Laval 44% | Draw 28% | Annecy 28%. Fair-value odds: Laval 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Annecy 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Laval are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Laval offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. This conflicts with form data: Laval 60% | Annecy 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Laval vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade Francis Le Basser • Kick-off: Friday 7 Feb 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Laval 44% | Draw 28% | Annecy 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Laval 1.28 / Annecy 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Laval attack 1.016 / def 0.940 | Annecy attack 1.013 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.008 • Poisson stance: Laval (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Laval xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Annecy xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Laval vs Annecy kick off?
Laval vs Annecy kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 7 February 2025 at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What was the final score in Laval vs Annecy?
Laval 0 - 1 Annecy.
Where is Laval vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What competition is Laval vs Annecy part of?
Laval vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Laval vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Laval a 44% chance of winning, Annecy a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Laval the favourite.
Will both teams score in Laval vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Laval and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Laval vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Annecy?
Record (5 meetings): Laval 2W | Draws 1 | Annecy 2W.
What form are Laval and Annecy in?
Laval (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Annecy (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Laval's attack rating (1.02) and Annecy's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus Laval's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Laval Win
44%
2.29
28%
3.52
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Laval xG
Total xG
2.24
0.96
Annecy xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
8%
12.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 10.3 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.1 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Laval vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Laval and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Laval and 0.96 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Laval vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Laval come into this having played 59 games, going 24W 17D 18L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-D. The sample for Laval is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Annecy sit at 1.34 PPG from 59 outings (21W 16D 22L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Laval on 1.51 PPG, Annecy on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Laval's home form reads 11W 8D 10L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Annecy have taken 1.31 points per game from 29 outings (10W 8D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Laval are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.29 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Laval
Blended
Annecy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Laval and Annecy in coming into this match?
Laval have gone 24W 17D 18L in their last 59 games (1.51 PPG), while Annecy have gone 21W 16D 22L in their last 59 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Laval at home or Annecy away?
Laval's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Laval at home: 1.41 PPG; Annecy away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Laval or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Laval have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Annecy in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2024, when Annecy won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Laval's record when hosting Annecy specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Laval
3
Draws
3
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Annecy?
From 8 meetings on record, Laval have won 2, Annecy have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Laval and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Laval 2-2 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Laval and Annecy?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Laval 62%, Annecy 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Laval) and 59% (Annecy).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Laval home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Laval play Annecy?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Laval's games and 59% of Annecy's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Laval vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Laval's recent games and 59% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Laval and Annecy tend to score early?
Laval have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Annecy in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Annecy defy the odds to beat Laval 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Laval 0-1 at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 1.28 xG and Annecy 0.96 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Laval fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 1.02 / defence 0.94 against Annecy attack 1.01 / defence 0.97, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Laval 44% | Draw 28% | Annecy 28%, with Laval to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Annecy win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 42%, Annecy 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Laval's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Annecy's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Laval 1.51 PPG, Annecy 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Laval (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Annecy (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.