Grenoble 0-0 RED Star FC 93 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Grenoble at 57% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Grenoble face RED Star FC 93.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
RED Star FC 93 travel to Stade des Alpes to take on Grenoble in Ligue 2 (matchday 22). The game is scheduled for Friday 7 February 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Grenoble stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Grenoble have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Grenoble are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, RED Star FC 93 have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
RED Star FC 93's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Grenoble) versus 1.10 (RED Star FC 93). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Grenoble have won 0, RED Star FC 93 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 14 Dec 2024, ended Grenoble 1–3 RED Star FC 93 — a RED Star FC 93 win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Grenoble trading profile (last 21 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 46% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
RED Star FC 93 trading profile (last 21 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grenoble 38% versus RED Star FC 93 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grenoble 52% | RED Star FC 93 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grenoble 1.76 xG and RED Star FC 93 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grenoble attack 1.029 / defence 0.969 | RED Star FC 93 attack 0.941 / defence 1.320. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.008. RED Star FC 93's defence rating of 1.320 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Grenoble's projected output up. Data: built from Grenoble's last 59 games and RED Star FC 93's last 21.
Result probabilities: Grenoble 57% | Draw 23% | RED Star FC 93 19%. Fair-value odds: Grenoble 1.75 | Draw 4.28 | RED Star FC 93 5.15. The model has a clear lean to Grenoble (57%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Grenoble are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Grenoble 40% (last 10 home games) | RED Star FC 93 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grenoble vs RED Star FC 93 | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 22 | Venue: Stade des Alpes • Kick-off: Friday 7 February 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grenoble 57% | Draw 23% | RED Star FC 93 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Grenoble 1.76 / RED Star FC 93 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Grenoble attack 1.029 / def 0.969 | RED Star FC 93 attack 0.941 / def 1.320 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.008 • Poisson stance: Grenoble (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Grenoble xG
Expected Goals
0.92
RED Star FC 93 xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Grenoble vs RED Star FC 93 FAQs
What time does Grenoble vs RED Star FC 93 kick off?
Grenoble vs RED Star FC 93 kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 7 February 2025 at Stade des Alpes.
What was the final score in Grenoble vs RED Star FC 93?
Grenoble 0 - 0 RED Star FC 93.
Where is Grenoble vs RED Star FC 93 being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Alpes.
What competition is Grenoble vs RED Star FC 93 part of?
Grenoble vs RED Star FC 93 is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 22) (France).
Who is favourite to win Grenoble vs RED Star FC 93?
Our statistical model gives Grenoble a 57% chance of winning, RED Star FC 93 a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Grenoble the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grenoble vs RED Star FC 93?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Grenoble and RED Star FC 93 will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Grenoble vs RED Star FC 93 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Grenoble's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against RED Star FC 93's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. The same calculation in reverse, RED Star FC 93's attack versus Grenoble's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Grenoble's last 59 games and RED Star FC 93's last 21 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grenoble Win
57%
1.75
23%
4.28
19%
5.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Grenoble xG
Total xG
2.68
0.92
RED Star FC 93 xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
5.15
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
17%
5.81
Win to Nil
23%
4.38
3%
29.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.1 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Grenoble vs RED Star FC 93 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Grenoble vs RED Star FC 93?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Grenoble and RED Star FC 93 expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Grenoble and 0.92 for RED Star FC 93, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Grenoble vs RED Star FC 93?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Grenoble's recent record stands at 9W 3D 9L from 21 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five.
RED Star FC 93, meanwhile, have gone 6W 4D 11L across 21 games — 1.05 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Grenoble on 1.43 PPG, RED Star FC 93 on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Grenoble have managed 7W 2D 2L from their last 11 home games — 2.09 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — Grenoble are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
RED Star FC 93's away record stands at 3W 2D 6L across their last 11 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Grenoble come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Grenoble are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; RED Star FC 93 are on 1.05 scored and 1.81 conceded.
Last 21 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grenoble
Blended
RED Star FC 93
Blended
Grenoble (Home) vs RED Star FC 93 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Grenoble
Blended
RED Star FC 93
Blended
❓ Grenoble vs RED Star FC 93 Form FAQs
What form are Grenoble and RED Star FC 93 in coming into this match?
Grenoble have gone 9W 3D 9L in their last 21 games (1.43 PPG), while RED Star FC 93 have gone 6W 4D 11L in their last 21 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grenoble at home or RED Star FC 93 away?
Grenoble's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grenoble at home: 2.09 PPG; RED Star FC 93 away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Grenoble or RED Star FC 93 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Grenoble have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, RED Star FC 93 in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from December 2024. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 17 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
RED Star FC 93 have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Jan 2026, when RED Star FC 93 won Grenoble 0-3 RED Star FC 93.
Grenoble's record when hosting RED Star FC 93 specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Grenoble
1
Draws
3
RED Star FC 93
Recent Meetings
❓ Grenoble vs RED Star FC 93 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and RED Star FC 93?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Grenoble have won 0, RED Star FC 93 have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Grenoble and RED Star FC 93 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 January 2026: Grenoble 0-3 RED Star FC 93.
Who has won more matches between Grenoble and RED Star FC 93?
RED Star FC 93 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Grenoble see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grenoble 46%, RED Star FC 93 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Grenoble) and 46% (RED Star FC 93).
On the defensive side: Grenoble keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Grenoble have failed to score in 27% of games; RED Star FC 93 in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grenoble home games / RED Star FC 93 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Grenoble vs RED Star FC 93 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Grenoble and RED Star FC 93 matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Grenoble's recent matches and 54% of RED Star FC 93's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Grenoble and RED Star FC 93 matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Grenoble's recent games and 46% of RED Star FC 93's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grenoble and RED Star FC 93 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 46% of Grenoble's recent matches and 82% of RED Star FC 93's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Grenoble's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grenoble and RED Star FC 93 finished level at 0-0 at Stade des Alpes, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grenoble 1.76 xG and RED Star FC 93 0.92 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Grenoble fell 1.8 short of their projected output. RED Star FC 93 landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grenoble attack 1.03 / defence 0.97 against RED Star FC 93 attack 0.94 / defence 1.32, drawn from 59/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grenoble 57% | Draw 23% | RED Star FC 93 19%, with Grenoble to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grenoble 52%, RED Star FC 93 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grenoble's trading profile (21 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
RED Star FC 93's trading profile (21 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grenoble 1.43 PPG, RED Star FC 93 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Grenoble (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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