Paris FC 3-1 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Paris FC at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Paris FC vs PAU fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 22 as Paris FC welcome PAU to Stade Charléty. Kick-off is set for Friday 7 February 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Paris FC — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Paris FC's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Stade Charléty this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Paris FC are significantly better at Stade Charléty than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, PAU stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Paris FC) versus 1.40 (PAU). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Paris FC, 3 for PAU and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 7 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Paris FC in-play tendencies (59 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
PAU in-play tendencies (59 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris FC 49% versus PAU 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris FC 48% | PAU 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 1.46 xG and PAU 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 1.160 / defence 1.025 | PAU attack 0.990 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.008. Data: 59 Paris FC games / 59 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris FC 47% | Draw 26% | PAU 26%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | PAU 3.85. Paris FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris FC at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Paris FC 60% | PAU 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade Charléty • Kick-off: Friday 7 Feb 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 47% | Draw 26% | PAU 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Paris FC 1.46 / PAU 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 1.160 / def 1.025 | PAU attack 0.990 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.008 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
1.02
PAU xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris FC vs PAU kick off?
Paris FC vs PAU kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 7 February 2025 at Stade Charléty.
What was the final score in Paris FC vs PAU?
Paris FC 3 - 1 PAU.
Where is Paris FC vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade Charléty.
What competition is Paris FC vs PAU part of?
Paris FC vs PAU is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 47% chance of winning, PAU a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Paris FC and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Paris FC vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and PAU?
Record (7 meetings): Paris FC 1W | Draws 3 | PAU 3W.
What form are Paris FC and PAU in?
Paris FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. PAU (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Paris FC's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against PAU's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, PAU's attack versus Paris FC's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
47%
2.12
26%
3.80
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Paris FC xG
Total xG
2.48
1.02
PAU xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
17%
5.89
6%
16.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.5 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris FC vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Paris FC and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Paris FC and 1.02 for PAU, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris FC vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, Paris FC have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 28W 16D 15L record — L-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Paris FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAU's form line: 20W 20D 19L from 59 games, 1.36 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-D. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Paris FC on 1.69 PPG, PAU on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Paris FC have posted 1.93 PPG from 28 outings (16W 6D 6L).
On the road, PAU have gone 8W 10D 10L from 28 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Paris FC are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.42 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris FC
Blended
PAU
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris FC and PAU in coming into this match?
Paris FC have gone 28W 16D 15L in their last 59 games (1.69 PPG), while PAU have gone 20W 20D 19L in their last 59 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris FC at home or PAU away?
Paris FC's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris FC at home: 1.93 PPG; PAU away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Paris FC or PAU been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, PAU in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Paris FC's record when hosting PAU specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Paris FC
3
Draws
3
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and PAU?
From 8 meetings on record, Paris FC have won 2, PAU have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Paris FC and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2025, when Paris FC 3-1 PAU.
Who has won more matches between Paris FC and PAU?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
PAU see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris FC 57%, PAU 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Paris FC) and 57% (PAU). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Paris FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris FC home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris FC play PAU?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Paris FC's games and 68% of PAU's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Paris FC vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Paris FC's matches and 57% of PAU's.
Do Paris FC and PAU tend to score early?
Paris FC have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, PAU in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Paris FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over PAU.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris FC beat PAU 3-1 at Stade Charléty, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 1.46 xG and PAU 1.02 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Paris FC beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 1.16 / defence 1.02 against PAU attack 0.99 / defence 0.97, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris FC 47% | Draw 26% | PAU 26%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 48%, PAU 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris FC's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
PAU's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Paris FC 1.69 PPG, PAU 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Paris FC win broke the near-deadlock. Paris FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm. PAU (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.