🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Lorient at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lorient vs Amiens encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Amiens make the trip to Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat to face Lorient in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 8 February 2025 at 13:00 UTC.

Current Form

Lorient's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Lorient, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Lorient at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Lorient are significantly better at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat than their overall form suggests.

Amiens have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Amiens have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Form favours the hosts. Lorient's 2.00 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Amiens's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Lorient lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with Amiens winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Lorient — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Amiens — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lorient 51% versus Amiens 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lorient 58% | Amiens 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lorient 2.21 xG and Amiens 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lorient attack 1.396 / defence 1.026 | Amiens attack 0.858 / defence 1.246. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.014. Lorient carry an above-average attack strength of 1.396 — their λ of 2.21 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Amiens bring a strong defensive rating of 1.246 — this is suppressing Lorient's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Lorient games / 59 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Lorient 67% | Draw 19% | Amiens 14%. Fair-value odds: Lorient 1.49 | Draw 5.26 | Amiens 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Lorient (67%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Lorient as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Lorient 50% | Amiens 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights