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Poisson rates Annecy at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Amiens vs Annecy encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 21 as Amiens welcome Annecy to Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne. Kick-off is set for Friday 31 January 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Amiens have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Amiens's home record at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Amiens are significantly better at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Annecy stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Annecy have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Annecy are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Amiens, 2 for Annecy and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2024, ended 0–3 with Annecy winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Amiens in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Annecy in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 40% versus Annecy 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 38% | Annecy 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.12 xG and Annecy 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.865 / defence 1.095 | Annecy attack 1.109 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.015. Data: 58 Amiens games / 58 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Amiens 33% | Draw 28% | Annecy 39%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Annecy 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Amiens 40% | Annecy 60%.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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