Angers 1-1 Laval – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Laval at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Angers face Laval.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Laval make the trip to Stade Raymond Kopa to face Angers in Ligue 2 (matchday 31). The match kicks off on Saturday 6 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Current Form
Angers's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Angers's home record over their last 10 home games: 8W 0D 2L (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Angers are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Laval (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Laval have posted 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Angers against 1.30 for Laval. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Laval edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 5 Aug 2023, ended Angers 0–1 Laval — a Laval win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Angers — key trading statistics (last 68 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Laval — key trading statistics (last 68 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Angers 50% versus Laval 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Angers 56% | Laval 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 1.06 xG and Laval 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 1.163 / defence 1.168 | Laval attack 1.120 / defence 0.783. League average goals — home 1.166 / away 1.172. Laval bring a tight defence (rating 0.783, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Angers's projected output down. Data: built from Angers's last 30 games and Laval's last 68.
Result probabilities: Angers 26% | Draw 27% | Laval 48%. Fair-value odds: Angers 3.91 | Draw 3.72 | Laval 2.10. Laval hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Laval are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Laval if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Angers 40% (last 10 home games) | Laval 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Laval | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 31 | Venue: Stade Raymond Kopa • Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 26% | Draw 27% | Laval 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Angers 1.06 / Laval 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 1.163 / def 1.168 | Laval attack 1.120 / def 0.783 | league avg home 1.166 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Laval (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Angers xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Laval xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Angers vs Laval FAQs
What time does Angers vs Laval kick off?
Angers vs Laval kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Stade Raymond Kopa.
What was the final score in Angers vs Laval?
Angers 1 - 1 Laval.
Where is Angers vs Laval being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Laval part of?
Angers vs Laval is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 31) (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Laval?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 26% chance of winning, Laval a 48% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Laval the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Laval?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Angers and Laval will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Angers vs Laval have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Angers's attack rating (1.16) and Laval's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Laval's attack (1.12x) against Angers's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from Angers's last 30 games and Laval's last 68 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.9%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Laval Win
26%
3.91
27%
3.72
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Angers xG
Total xG
2.59
1.53
Laval xG
3.91
26%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
22%
4.63
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
6%
18.10
16%
6.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 11.5 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Angers vs Laval Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Laval?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Angers and Laval expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Angers and 1.53 for Laval, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Laval?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Angers come into this having played 68 games, going 20W 11D 37L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-W.
On the other side, Laval sit at 1.38 PPG from 68 outings (27W 13D 28L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Angers against 1.38 for Laval. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Angers's home form reads 14W 4D 15L across their last 33 home games, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Laval have taken 1.36 points per game from their last 33 away games (13W 6D 14L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Angers are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Laval are on 1.18 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Current Season
Laval
Current Season
Angers (Home) vs Laval (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Angers
Current Season
Laval
Current Season
❓ Angers vs Laval Form FAQs
What form are Angers and Laval in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 20W 11D 37L in their last 68 games (1.04 PPG), while Laval have gone 27W 13D 28L in their last 68 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Laval away?
Angers's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 1.39 PPG; Laval away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Angers
1
Draws
1
Laval
Recent Meetings
❓ Angers vs Laval H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Laval?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Angers have won 0, Laval have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Angers and Laval last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 April 2024: Angers 1-1 Laval.
Who has won more matches between Angers and Laval?
Laval have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Angers 61%, Laval 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Angers) and 46% (Laval).
On the defensive side: Angers keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Laval in 39%; Laval in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Laval away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Angers vs Laval Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Angers and Laval matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Angers's recent matches and 39% of Laval's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Angers and Laval matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Angers's recent games and 46% of Laval's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Angers and Laval matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 91% of Angers's recent matches and 61% of Laval's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Angers and Laval share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Raymond Kopa, Regular Season - 31, as Angers and Laval drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.06 xG and Laval 1.53 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 1.16 / defence 1.17 against Laval attack 1.12 / defence 0.78, drawn from 30/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Angers 26% | Draw 27% | Laval 48%, with Laval to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 56%, Laval 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Angers's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Laval's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Angers 1.04 PPG, Laval 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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