Guingamp vs Saint Etienne – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guingamp vs Saint Etienne encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 11 as Guingamp welcome Saint Etienne to Stade de Roudourou. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 October 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Guingamp's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stade de Roudourou this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de Roudourou. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Guingamp are significantly better at Stade de Roudourou than their overall form suggests.

Saint Etienne — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Saint Etienne have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

On the road, Saint Etienne have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Form points away from home here. Saint Etienne's 1.70 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Guingamp's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Guingamp have won 3, Saint Etienne 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2026, ended 1–2 with Saint Etienne winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Guingamp in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Saint Etienne in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 50% versus Saint Etienne 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 55% | Saint Etienne 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.36 xG and Saint Etienne 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.097 / defence 1.075 | Saint Etienne attack 1.266 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.253. Saint Etienne have an above-average attack strength of 1.266 — the away xG of 1.70 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 Guingamp games / 38 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Guingamp 29% | Draw 27% | Saint Etienne 44%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | Saint Etienne 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.36 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Saint Etienne at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. This conflicts with form data: Guingamp 30% | Saint Etienne 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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