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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 35%, yet in-form Saint Etienne provide a compelling counter-argument — this Guingamp vs Saint Etienne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 11 as Guingamp welcome Saint Etienne to Stade de Roudourou. Kick-off is set for Friday 30 October 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Guingamp haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Guingamp's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stade de Roudourou this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Guingamp are significantly better at Stade de Roudourou than their overall form suggests.

Saint Etienne — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Saint Etienne haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

On the road, Saint Etienne have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Form points away from home here. Saint Etienne's 1.20 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Guingamp's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Table Context

The standings have Saint Etienne (3rd, 60 pts) 8 places above Guingamp (11th, 40 pts) — a 20-point gap in Ligue 2.

On home turf, Guingamp's Ligue 2 record reads 6W 5D 6L this term. Away from home, Saint Etienne have posted 7W 4D 6L in Ligue 2 this season. Saint Etienne: Promotion Playoffs.

Trading Patterns

Guingamp in-play and half-time data (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Saint Etienne in-play and half-time data (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 50% versus Saint Etienne 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 56% | Saint Etienne 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.15 xG and Saint Etienne 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 0.870 / defence 0.953 | Saint Etienne attack 0.928 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.258. Data: 34 Guingamp games / 34 Saint Etienne games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Guingamp 35% | Draw 32% | Saint Etienne 33%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Saint Etienne 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Saint Etienne (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 30% | Saint Etienne 40% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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