Clermont Foot vs Guingamp – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model favours Clermont Foot (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Clermont Foot face Guingamp.

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Match Analysis

Clermont Foot host Guingamp at Stade Gabriel Montpied in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 23 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Clermont Foot — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Clermont Foot have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Clermont Foot have posted 2W 5D 3L at Stade Gabriel Montpied — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Guingamp's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On current form, Clermont Foot have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Clermont Foot have won 3, Guingamp 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2026, ended 1–0 with Clermont Foot winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Clermont Foot in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Guingamp in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 58% versus Guingamp 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 45% | Guingamp 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.08 xG and Guingamp 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.767 / defence 0.764 | Guingamp attack 0.805 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.253. Clermont Foot's attack strength of 0.767 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Clermont Foot's defence rating of 0.764 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Clermont Foot games / 38 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 41% | Draw 35% | Guingamp 24%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 2.44 | Draw 2.86 | Guingamp 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Clermont Foot at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 1.85 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates are neutral: Clermont Foot 50% | Guingamp 60%.

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