Annecy vs Montpellier – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Annecy take on Montpellier.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Annecy and Montpellier meet at Parc des Sports in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Annecy's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Annecy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Annecy's home record at Parc des Sports: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Montpellier (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Montpellier have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Montpellier away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Annecy, 1.70 for Montpellier — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Annecy 0W, Montpellier 1W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 0.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Annecy — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Montpellier — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 10% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 53% versus Montpellier 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Annecy 53% | Montpellier 26%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 0.88 xG and Montpellier 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.108 / defence 0.817 | Montpellier attack 0.906 / defence 0.652. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.253. Montpellier's defence strength of 0.652 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 38 Annecy games / 38 Montpellier games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 30% | Draw 36% | Montpellier 33%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 3.33 | Draw 2.78 | Montpellier 3.03. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.80 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 70% | Montpellier 10% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Montpellier | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 30% | Draw 36% | Montpellier 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 37% | xG Annecy 0.88 / Montpellier 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 1.108 / def 0.817 | Montpellier attack 0.906 / def 0.652 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Montpellier xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Montpellier kick off?
Annecy vs Montpellier is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Parc des Sports.
Where is Annecy vs Montpellier being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Montpellier part of?
Annecy vs Montpellier is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Montpellier?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 30% chance of winning, Montpellier a 33% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Montpellier?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Annecy and Montpellier will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Montpellier have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Montpellier?
Record (2 meetings): Annecy 0W | Draws 1 | Montpellier 1W.
What form are Annecy and Montpellier in?
Annecy (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Montpellier (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Annecy's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Montpellier's defensive record (0.65x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.88. Flip it around — Montpellier's attack (0.91x) against Annecy's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.29
36%
2.74
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Annecy xG
Total xG
1.80
0.93
Montpellier xG
3.29
30%
Home win
2.74
36%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
12%
8.33
14%
7.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.5 | 15.3 | 7.1 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.4 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Montpellier?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.2%.
How many goals are Annecy and Montpellier expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Annecy and 0.93 for Montpellier, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Montpellier?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Annecy's recent record stands at 17W 8D 13L from 38 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Annecy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Montpellier, meanwhile, have gone 16W 11D 11L across 38 games — 1.55 PPG, with D-D-W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Montpellier, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for Annecy against 1.55 for Montpellier. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Annecy have managed 8W 7D 4L from 19 games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Montpellier's away record stands at 8W 5D 6L across 19 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Annecy are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Montpellier are on 1.16 scored and 0.84 conceded.
Defensively: Montpellier in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Early Season
Montpellier
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Montpellier in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 17W 8D 13L in their last 38 games (1.55 PPG), while Montpellier have gone 16W 11D 11L in their last 38 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Montpellier away?
Annecy's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.63 PPG; Montpellier away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Annecy or Montpellier been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Montpellier in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Annecy
1
Draws
1
Montpellier
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Montpellier?
From 2 meetings on record, Annecy have won 0, Montpellier have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Montpellier last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Annecy 0-0 Montpellier.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Montpellier?
Montpellier have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 26% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Montpellier see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 63%, Montpellier 21% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 47% for Annecy and 10% for Montpellier.
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Montpellier in 47%; Montpellier in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Montpellier away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Montpellier?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Annecy's recent matches and 21% of Montpellier's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Montpellier usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Annecy's recent games and 10% of Montpellier's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Montpellier tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Montpellier in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.