Reims vs Sochaux – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Reims at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reims vs Sochaux fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Reims and Sochaux meet at Stade Auguste-Delaune in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Reims's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 6D 0L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Reims have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Reims's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Stade Auguste-Delaune this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sochaux have collected 1.25 PPG across 4 Ligue 2 outings this season: 1W 2D 1L. Last five: L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.25 per game is modest, conceding 0.75 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 4 games (75%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Sochaux have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Reims. A 0.55 PPG lead over Sochaux (1.80 vs 1.25) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Reims goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 75%.
Sochaux goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time; they fail to score in 75% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 75% versus Sochaux 0%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 75% | Sochaux 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.43 xG and Sochaux 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 1.404 / defence 1.121 | Sochaux attack 0.591 / defence 0.841. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.253. Reims carry an above-average attack strength of 1.404 — their λ of 1.43 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 38 Reims games / 4 Sochaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 50% | Draw 30% | Sochaux 20%. Fair-value odds: Reims 2.00 | Draw 3.33 | Sochaux 5.00. Reims hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reims at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reims if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Reims 60% | Sochaux 0% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Sochaux | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 50% | Draw 30% | Sochaux 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Reims 1.43 / Sochaux 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 1.404 / def 1.121 | Sochaux attack 0.591 / def 0.841 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Reims (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Reims xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Sochaux xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Sochaux kick off?
Reims vs Sochaux is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
Where is Reims vs Sochaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs Sochaux part of?
Reims vs Sochaux is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Sochaux?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 50% chance of winning, Sochaux a 20% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Sochaux?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Reims and Sochaux will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Sochaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Sochaux?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Reims and Sochaux in?
Reims (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Sochaux (all comps): 1W-2D-1L in 4 | 1.25 PPG | GF 0.25 / GA 0.75 | L5 L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Reims's attacking strength (1.40x league average) is weighed against Sochaux's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. Flip it around — Sochaux's attack (0.59x) against Reims's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 38/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
50%
2.02
30%
3.29
20%
4.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Reims xG
Total xG
2.26
0.83
Sochaux xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
4.97
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
22%
4.63
5%
20.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.4 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Sochaux?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Reims and Sochaux expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Reims and 0.83 for Sochaux, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Sochaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 4 outings, Reims have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 2W 2D 0L record — D-D-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Reims, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sochaux's form line: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Sochaux, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Reims are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sochaux.
Attack vs Defence
Reims are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Sochaux are on 0.25 scored and 0.75 conceded. Reims's scoring rate against Sochaux's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Reims have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Sochaux in 0%.
Defensively: Sochaux in 75% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Early Season
Sochaux
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Sochaux in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 2W 2D 0L in their last 4 games (2.00 PPG), while Sochaux have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 (1.25 PPG).
Have Reims or Sochaux been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Sochaux in 75%.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Sochaux see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 75%, Sochaux 0% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Reims) and 25% (Sochaux).
On the defensive side: Sochaux in 75%; Sochaux in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Sochaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Sochaux?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Reims's recent matches and 0% of Sochaux's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reims vs Sochaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Reims's recent games and 25% of Sochaux's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Sochaux tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Sochaux in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.