Amiens 1-3 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Quevilly at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Amiens vs Quevilly encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne plays host to Amiens versus Quevilly in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 7 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Amiens have collected 0.00 PPG across 2 Ligue 2 outings this season: 0W 0D 2L. Last five: L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Amiens have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Quevilly's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 0W 1D 0L from 1 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Quevilly have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Quevilly are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Amiens register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Quevilly in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.00 xG and Quevilly 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.968 / defence 1.231 | Quevilly attack 0.813 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.900 / away 1.341. Data: 2 Amiens games / 1 Quevilly games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Amiens 24% | Draw 35% | Quevilly 41%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 4.17 | Draw 2.86 | Quevilly 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Quevilly as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Quevilly if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 24% | Draw 35% | Quevilly 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 51% | xG Amiens 1.00 / Quevilly 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 0.968 / def 1.231 | Quevilly attack 0.813 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.900 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Quevilly (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Quevilly xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Quevilly kick off?
Amiens vs Quevilly kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 7 August 2021 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Quevilly?
Amiens 1 - 3 Quevilly.
Where is Amiens vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Quevilly part of?
Amiens vs Quevilly is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 24% chance of winning, Quevilly a 41% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Quevilly the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Amiens and Quevilly will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Quevilly?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Amiens and Quevilly in?
Amiens (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L. Quevilly (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Amiens's attack rating (0.97) and Quevilly's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Quevilly's attack (0.81x) against Amiens's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
The sample (2/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Quevilly Win
24%
4.15
35%
2.83
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.34
1.34
Quevilly xG
4.15
24%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
6%
15.88
15%
6.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Amiens and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Amiens and 1.34 for Quevilly, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Quevilly?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 1 outings, Amiens have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 1L record — L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Amiens, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Quevilly's form line: 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D. It's still early in the season for Quevilly, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Quevilly are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Amiens.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Amiens are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Amiens have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Quevilly in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Early Season
Quevilly
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Quevilly in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Amiens have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Quevilly — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Amiens
2
Draws
2
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Quevilly?
From 6 meetings on record, Amiens have won 2, Quevilly have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Quevilly last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2024, when Quevilly 3-3 Amiens.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Quevilly?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Amiens's games and 100% of Quevilly's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Amiens vs Quevilly usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Amiens's recent games and 0% of Quevilly's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Quevilly tend to score early?
Amiens have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Quevilly in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Quevilly cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Amiens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Quevilly beat Amiens 1-3 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.00 xG and Quevilly 1.34 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Quevilly outscored their 1.34 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.97 / defence 1.23 against Quevilly attack 0.81 / defence 1.15, drawn from 2/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 24% | Draw 35% | Quevilly 41%, with Quevilly to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 100%, Quevilly 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Quevilly arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Quevilly scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.