Guingamp 0-0 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Guingamp face Amiens.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Guingamp host Amiens at Stade du Roudourou in Ligue 2 (matchday 31). Kick-off is Saturday 6 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Guingamp — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Guingamp's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Amiens have recorded 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Amiens's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Guingamp 1.30 PPG, Amiens 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Guingamp, 3 for Amiens and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 2 Sep 2023, ended Guingamp 1–4 Amiens — a Amiens win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Guingamp trading profile (last 68 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Amiens trading profile (last 68 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 47% versus Amiens 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 46% | Amiens 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.11 xG and Amiens 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.062 / defence 0.999 | Amiens attack 0.910 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.166 / away 1.172. Data: built from Guingamp's last 68 games and Amiens's last 68.
Result probabilities: Guingamp 36% | Draw 31% | Amiens 33%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.80 | Draw 3.25 | Amiens 2.99. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 63% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Guingamp 50% (last 10 home games) | Amiens 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 31 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 36% | Draw 31% | Amiens 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Guingamp 1.11 / Amiens 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.062 / def 0.999 | Amiens attack 0.910 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.166 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Amiens xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Guingamp vs Amiens FAQs
What time does Guingamp vs Amiens kick off?
Guingamp vs Amiens kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Amiens?
Guingamp 0 - 0 Amiens.
Where is Guingamp vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Amiens part of?
Guingamp vs Amiens is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 31) (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 36% chance of winning, Amiens a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Guingamp and Amiens will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Guingamp vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Guingamp's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Amiens's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, Amiens's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Guingamp's last 68 games and Amiens's last 68 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
36%
2.80
31%
3.25
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.18
1.07
Amiens xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
12%
8.12
11%
9.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 12.1 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Guingamp vs Amiens Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.07 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Guingamp come into this having played 68 games, going 26W 20D 22L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-D.
On the other side, Amiens sit at 1.31 PPG from 68 outings (23W 20D 25L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.44 PPG, Amiens on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Guingamp's home form reads 12W 9D 12L across their last 33 home games, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Amiens have taken 1.18 points per game from their last 33 away games (10W 9D 14L).
The Goals Picture
Guingamp are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.00 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Current Season
Amiens
Current Season
Guingamp (Home) vs Amiens (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Guingamp
Current Season
Amiens
Current Season
❓ Guingamp vs Amiens Form FAQs
What form are Guingamp and Amiens in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 26W 20D 22L in their last 68 games (1.44 PPG), while Amiens have gone 23W 20D 25L in their last 68 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Amiens away?
Guingamp's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.36 PPG; Amiens away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Amiens in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 13 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Guingamp have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Jan 2022, when Amiens won Amiens 3-0 Guingamp.
Guingamp's record when hosting Amiens specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Guingamp
2
Draws
4
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Guingamp vs Amiens H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Amiens?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Guingamp have won 4, Amiens have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Amiens last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 March 2026: Guingamp 1-0 Amiens.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 46%, Amiens 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Guingamp) and 39% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Guingamp have failed to score in 33% of games; Amiens in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Guingamp vs Amiens Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Guingamp and Amiens matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Guingamp's recent matches and 46% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Guingamp and Amiens matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Guingamp's recent games and 39% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Amiens matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Guingamp's recent matches and 79% of Amiens's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Guingamp's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 31, as Guingamp and Amiens drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.11 xG and Amiens 1.07 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Guingamp fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Amiens landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.06 / defence 1.00 against Amiens attack 0.91 / defence 0.90, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 36% | Draw 31% | Amiens 33%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 46%, Amiens 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Amiens's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.44 PPG, Amiens 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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