Estac Troyes 0-1 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estac Troyes vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Guingamp make the trip to Stade de l'Aube to face Estac Troyes in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Saturday 25 November 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Estac Troyes's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Estac Troyes have posted 2W 4D 4L at Stade de l'Aube — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Guingamp have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Guingamp arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Estac Troyes — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Guingamp — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Estac Troyes 69% and Guingamp 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 62% | Guingamp 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 0.90 xG and Guingamp 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 0.858 / defence 1.001 | Guingamp attack 0.808 / defence 0.798. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.178. Guingamp's defence strength of 0.798 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 14 Estac Troyes games / 52 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 32% | Draw 32% | Guingamp 35%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | Guingamp 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guingamp if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.85 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates are neutral: Estac Troyes 70% | Guingamp 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Nov 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 32% | Draw 32% | Guingamp 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Estac Troyes 0.90 / Guingamp 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 0.858 / def 1.001 | Guingamp attack 0.808 / def 0.798 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Guingamp xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Guingamp kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Guingamp kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Guingamp?
Estac Troyes 0 - 1 Guingamp.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Guingamp part of?
Estac Troyes vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 32% chance of winning, Guingamp a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Estac Troyes and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Guingamp?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Estac Troyes and Guingamp in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Guingamp (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Estac Troyes's attack at 0.86x the league average against Guingamp's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Guingamp's attack (0.81x) against Estac Troyes's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 14/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
32%
3.09
32%
3.09
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
1.85
0.95
Guingamp xG
3.09
32%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.75
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
12%
8.02
14%
6.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.7 | 15.0 | 7.1 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.4 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 0.95 for Guingamp, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Estac Troyes's recent record stands at 6W 19D 27L from 52 games, a 0.71 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guingamp, meanwhile, have gone 20W 16D 16L across 52 games — 1.46 PPG, with D-D-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Guingamp by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Estac Troyes heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Estac Troyes have managed 3W 13D 9L from 25 games — 0.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Guingamp's away record stands at 9W 9D 7L across 25 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.37 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estac Troyes have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 6W 19D 27L in their last 52 games (0.71 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 20W 16D 16L in their last 52 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Guingamp away?
Guingamp's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 0.88 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Estac Troyes or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Guingamp in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Guingamp won 4-0 on 16 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estac Troyes have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Guingamp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Estac Troyes
1
Draws
4
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Guingamp?
From 6 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 1, Guingamp have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Guingamp 1-0 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 68%, Guingamp 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Estac Troyes) and 36% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Guingamp in 40%; Estac Troyes have failed to score in 32% of games; Guingamp in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Guingamp?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Estac Troyes's games and 52% of Guingamp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estac Troyes vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Estac Troyes's recent games and 36% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estac Troyes and Guingamp tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Guingamp edge out Estac Troyes 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Estac Troyes 0-1 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 0.90 xG and Guingamp 0.95 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Estac Troyes fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 0.86 / defence 1.00 against Guingamp attack 0.81 / defence 0.80, drawn from 14/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 32% | Draw 32% | Guingamp 35%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 62%, Guingamp 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Guingamp's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Guingamp arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward. Guingamp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.